Atlantic Division Preview

Continuing my NBA preview series today with the Atlantic Division. If you missed the Central Division piece, I’m using these previews to outline the main questions I have for each team and share my overall feel for them heading into the season.

New York Knicks

The Knicks are one of the few teams I feel I have a solid understanding of going into the season. They were very good — but not great — last season. Their top six players are between 26 and 30 years old, meaning there’s little reason to expect major improvement or decline from the core. They weren’t particularly healthy or injured either, finishing right in the middle of my injury rankings. The question is simple: how do they get better than last year?

There are three possible answers.

The first is coaching. The biggest offseason move was replacing Thibs with Mike Brown, who’s talked a lot about modernizing the offense — adding pace, movement, and lighter workloads. I’m skeptical. Thibs is a good coach; Brown is fine. The Knicks finished 5th in offense last year, and there’s a reason they played such a slow, low-passing style: it fit their personnel. Jalen Brunson doesn’t want to run off-ball — he’s elite creating on it. He led the league in seconds per touch and time of possession for good reason. The rest of the roster isn’t built for high-movement basketball. Maybe Towns could be used more as a creator (his assist rate was his lowest since his third season), but giving more touches to Bridges or OG likely won’t lead to greener pastures. Defensively, they finished 12th despite KAT playing most of the season at center — impressive, and likely somewhat due to Thibs. Overall, I think this coaching change is more likely a downgrade than an upgrade.

The second path is Mitchell Robinson. He played just 288 minutes last year but looked excellent after returning, becoming a key part of their playoff run. He’s expected to start this season, and that’s a real reason for optimism. Robinson looks in much better shape than earlier in his career and should meaningfully improve their defense, while his elite offensive rebounding can help keep the offense efficient even if he adds little in terms of creation. The question is how that fits with Brown’s desire for pace and movement. Swapping Josh Hart for Robinson doesn’t exactly fit that vision. So far in the preseason, Robinson was given more offensive responsibility — and didn’t look comfortable. Still, if he stays healthy, he’s a big upgrade and allows them to reduce KAT’s minutes at center.

The third possible improvement is the bench, which Knicks fans and beat writers seem excited about. I think Yabusele is a solid pickup, and having Robinson back (which pushes Hart to the bench) helps a lot. Beyond that, I’m not buying much. Jordan Clarkson is serviceable — probably a downgrade from Cam Payne — and I don’t expect Malcolm Brogdon to give them meaningful production given his health history.

Overall, I’m roughly in line with the market on the Knicks. If they were in the West, I’d worry about their ceiling, but in a weaker East, they have legitimate — if slightly overpriced — title hopes.

Toronto Raptors

I think basketball nerds have a hard time separating teams they don’t like from teams they don’t think will win. The Raptors are a perfect example. I’ve heard a lot of people taking the under on their win total because they don’t like how Ingram or RJ play, or how the roster fits together. But the irony is that the very reasons people dislike this team are the same reasons they’re likely to win around 35–45 games — too good to tank, too flawed to contend. The roster construction is messy and the cap is tight, but the starting lineup still has enough talent to be roughly a .500 team, especially in this Eastern Conference.

The biggest concern for the Raptors this season is the bench, which currently has zero proven NBA players. It’s a somewhat interesting strategy from the Raptors — one that might’ve happened by accident — but they essentially have a tanking roster as their bench unit. The group projects to be some combination of Sandro, Jamal Shead, Gradey Dick, Jakobe Walter, Collin Murray-Boyles, Jamison Battle, Ochai Agbaji, and Jonathan Mogbo. Pretty much all of these players are unproven prospects. I’m very high on Walter and Murray-Boyles; Walter should be able to contribute this season and might emerge as the team’s sixth man. I like that the Raptors have a bench this young — it gives them a few chances for someone to hit and maybe raise the ceiling of this team. It also allows for an easy pivot to tank if things go poorly, though that seems unlikely given the current roster build.

The other big variable is Scottie Barnes. He’s already a very solid player, but Toronto needs him to take a star-level leap. The most realistic path is on defense — he could legitimately become one of the top five defenders in the league. He made major strides last year, and the Raptors somehow finished with the #1 defense over the final quarter of the season. I’m not sure he’ll ever be the offensive engine this roster needs, but he’s clearly a high-level player with room to grow.

Brooklyn Nets

It’s hard to believe this team isn’t the favorite to finish with the fewest wins in the league. I’ve already bet their under at 20.5 wins and would still take it at -110.

Brooklyn won 26 games last year but had the point differential of a 21.8-win team. They’re clearly worse now. Rookie minutes are typically the least efficient in the league, and while the Nets didn’t have a 2024 draft pick, they do have five first-rounders this season. Some will start in the G League, but others — like Ben Saraf and Egor Demin — are already in the projected rotation. That’s almost certainly the worst point guard group in the NBA. Last year, they got 1,500 PG minutes from Dennis Schroder and D’Angelo Russell.

Unlike Washington or Utah, Brooklyn has few players who could realistically take a leap. Maybe Cam Thomas, but this is his fifth season, and the team letting him sign the qualifying offer says plenty. MPJ-for-Cam Johnson is a downgrade, and the Thomas–MPJ pairing gives off serious Kuzma–Poole energy.

They also don’t own their 2027 pick and clearly regret winning too many games early last season. Everything points to a full-scale tank this year.

The only counterpoint is Jordi Fernandez, who’s a legit coach. But given the roster and organizational direction, I still project the Nets as the worst team in the NBA.

Boston Celtics

The closest comparison here is the Pacers — both teams lost major talent after being Eastern contenders. Neither would be lined this high if not for their prior success with very different rosters.

The biggest concern is the frontcourt. Boston lost its three best centers and replaced them with unproven players. Garza and Queta have combined for only 2,000 NBA minutes. Worse, they don’t have a reliable power forward either. It’s trendy to call basketball positionless, but that’s not true — most top teams are trending bigger and starting two traditional bigs. I’m skeptical Sam Hauser can handle starting at the four, and if not him, it’s Chris Boucher or Xavier Tillman — both journeymen. Like Indiana, this a position group of a serious roster.

The story out of training camp has been the Celtics really leaning into pace after being 29th last season. I think this makes sense — Brown has always been a guy who can push the ball, and the team’s biggest strength by far is how much three-point shooting they have. I expect the Celtics to play fast, shoot a metric ton of threes, really struggle on D, and be quite mediocre overall. I’ve played some under here at 41.5.

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers were a team I thought I’d be high on looking at the odds prior to really getting my NBA stuff ready for the season, but after I really got into the weeds, it became the exact opposite.

Of course, the biggest question for this team is health, but I don’t think the question is will they be healthy or injured — it’s more will they be injured or very injured. Joel likely will never play a back-to-back again, so that already gets him to starting the season at 66 games. A 95th-percentile outcome is Joel playing 60 games this year, and his median is something like 41 games,. Plus, Joel just wasn’t very good last year, and I’m not sure it’s realistic to expect him to ever be close to what he was with the condition of his knee. Maybe he’ll find it for a game or two, but unlikely for long stretches. Then there’s Paul George, who also had knee surgery this summer and might miss the start of the year. George also was well below his standard last season, and at 35, coming off knee surgery, I’m not convinced he’s going to be close to what he was earlier in his career.

Even if Joel and PG have good seasons for what realistically can be expected of them, I’m quite low on the rest of this roster. Maxey is an All-Star-level player, but past him, the roster is bad. Grimes had an awesome stretch to end the year on a total joke of a team, and before that has been OK. Dallas traded him for nearly nothing, and Philly pretty much offered him nothing above the qualifying offer. The Sixers were worried about going over the tax, but it’s not like this was to avoid the second apron — if they really liked Grimes, they could’ve made at least a semi-competitive offer. It sounds like Edgecombe is going to start; I’m quite high on his ceiling, but like all non–Cooper Flagg rookies, he is very likely going to be bad this season. The backup center position is a disaster; Bona has shown some flashes but is only a maybe-NBA player, and Drummond had a horrific season last year. For a normal team, that would be fine, but that’s the Sixers’ starting center position for likely half the games this season. This team also has very little size outside of the center position, and PG is going to have to start at the four — and if he’s out, it’ll likely be Kelly Oubre. I like Jared McCain and think he’s a great bench piece, but it’s not like this team lacks shot creation — that’s their clear biggest strength.

Overall, as you can probably tell, I am very low on this team and have bet them under wins. I think even in a very good outcome, where Joel plays 55 games and PG plays 70, they don’t profile as better than Atlanta or Orlando. But there is just so much downside risk with this team, as we saw last season.