Expected Goals, Actual Opinions: A Team-By-Team NHL Trade Deadline Primer

Expected Goals, Actual Opinions: A Team-By-Team Trade Deadline Primer

By: Alex Moretto, Director of Content at the Hammer Betting Network


Anaheim Ducks

It’s still a year too early for the Ducks, but with the Pacific Division suddenly wide open, they should be weaponizing their wealth of cap space to take a couple swings at improving the roster for a potential run to the conference finals. They have the best goalie in the division and over $50 million in deadline cap space. Cutter Gauthier, Leo Carlson, Pavel Mintyukov, and Owen Zellweger are all due for big raises this summer – Ryan Poehling, too, if they opt to keep him – but they still have a ton of wiggle room. An experienced blue liner and bottom-six winger should be the primary targets, but with Jacob Trouba and Radko Gudas on expiring deals I’d love to see them package one of Pavel Mintyukov or Olen Zellweger as part of a bigger deal to acquire a legit partner for Jackson LaCombe… someone like MacKenzie Weegar or Brett Pesce.

Boston Bruins

The Bruins have been linked to a number of guys and seem committed to bolstering their roster ahead of the deadline, but I think their best course of action is to do nothing. At most I’d make a small move to add a middle-six winger where I’m only giving up a middling pick. If they can add a guy with term who fits into their plans beyond this season then it’s a different conversation, but those are the types of deals they can wait to make until summer. They aren’t close to good enough to beat a Tampa or Carolina in the first round and there’s no one out there they can realistically add to this team in the next couple days to change that. They are well-positioned to get back to being competitive in the next few years and they don’t have any reason to sacrifice that just to win an extra game, at best, in the first round.

Buffalo Sabres

The franchise desperately needed this run and for the first time in ages it’s an exciting time to be a Sabres fan. Because of that, I can’t really fault them for keeping Alex Tuch as their own rental at the risk of losing him for nothing this summer, even if that is typically very bad practice. I’d still try and explore a hockey trade where you get assets that still help you this season for Tuch, but those are generally easier to make in the summer – only they won’t have much leverage then as he’ll be on the cusp of free agency. If I were Jarmo Kekalainen my priority would be a right defenseman and an experienced bottom-six forward, in that order. Could they pry Zach Whitecloud out of Calgary? I don’t know how realistic trading within the division is, but a Scott Laughton and Brandon Carlo package from Toronto is pretty much exactly what they need.

On the Robert Thomas rumors, that would be a terrifying proposition for the rest of the Eastern Conference. They have the picks and young NHL talent to pull it off comfortably, and it would be a true home run for Kekalainen. Running three of Thomas, Tage Thompson, Josh Norris, and Ryan McLeod down the middle is some nasty work. They would be a legitimate threat in the East for years to come.

Carolina Hurricanes

We know Eric Tulsky isn’t afraid to take swings, so how about Robert Thomas here? The Canes need another legitimate center to get over the hump, and have both the assets and cap space to pull a deal off with St. Louis. I like Logan Stankoven but he’s won 44% of his draws and is best suited to play on the wing. Jordan Staal is their only reliable faceoff guy and you ideally don’t want him out there taking offensive zone draws late in games when you need a goal. I also wonder about Nazem Kadri and Ryan O’Reilly here. The bottom line is they can put an attractive package together for anyone out there on the market, and they absolutely need an upgrade at 2C if they are going to have a chance to finally get over the hump.

Calgary Flames

Staring down the barrel at a full rebuild, the Flames should be open to anything. They need to be taking calls on everyone on that roster over 25. Moving Kadri to the highest bidder is a must, and I would definitely be shopping Zach Whitecloud, who should fetch a really nice return as a coveted big, right-shot defenseman who has a Cup and is signed for another two years at just $2.75 million. They already have four first-round picks in the next two years, and by moving Kadri, Whitecloud, and Blake Coleman, it’s conceivable they add a couple more.

Chicago Blackhawks

This is something of a weird spot for the Blackhawks, who have been rebuilding for a while and are slowly starting to see the returns from their high picks, but have done such a terrible job building the roster around them. As much as you’d think a team in their position should be continuing to try and add picks and young players for ageing veterans, they also need to give the likes of Connor Bedard, Frank Nazar, and others some good players to play with. Chicago’s veterans are unlikely to fetch them much, either. The one guy I’d try and move is Tyler Bertuzzi, who just turned 31 and has two more years left at $5.5 million. He’s already four goals away (26) from setting a new career high (30) and is the type of player contending teams will covet in the playoffs. The reality is he’s not actually that good, but he’s made the most of his opportunity playing high up the lineup in Chicago and Kyle Davidson should be trying to cash in on that. The Blackhawks are also a team that would make sense for me as a landing spot for pending UFA Patrik Laine. He’ll come free – you might even be able to get a late pick attached to take on the rest of his contract – and you can give him a two-month audition in the lineup to prove himself and get an up-close look as to whether you want to make him an offer to stay beyond this season. It’s a completely risk-free move.

Colorado Avalanche

Not much needs to be said about the Avs, who laid the groundwork for a bigger trade already by moving Samuel Girard. They’re pretty obviously targeting an upgrade at forward, and everyone will have Nazem Kadri penciled in here, but I would love to see them bring back Ryan O’Reilly. He’ll cost less, is easier to fit in under the cap next season, and would be the optimal fit on that third line. He’s also probably the better player at this point in their careers?

Columbus Blue Jackets

All indications are the franchise is going to do what they can to get into the playoffs. If that’s the case, they need to make a splash or they will fall short again. I wouldn’t. There’s a lot of good, young talent on this roster and I don’t think trading futures for a rental just to improve their chances of making the playoffs to a number still sub-60% is remotely worth it. I’d go the other way, if I were in Don Waddell’s shoes. It’s a buyer’s market so it’s easier said than done, but trading some impending UFAs to add assets they can flip as part of a bigger move this summer to get them over the hump feels like the best path forward. I know they’re growing impatient, but dealing a couple of Mason Marchment, Charlie Coyle, Boone Jenner, and Danton Heinen would be the most logical approach to the deadline.

Dallas Stars

The Stars have really hit their stride as we approach the deadline and I’m fascinated to see what they do over these next couple days with Tyler Seguin on season ending LTIR. Another right shot on the blue line would make sense here, though a lefty could also work if they want to keep Miro Heiskanen playing on his off side to keep him, Esa Lindell, and Thomas Harley (all left shots) in the top four. If so, I wonder about Oliver Ekman-Larsson here. They’re loaded down the middle but could definitely use another middle-six winger. Blake Coleman or Conor Garland would be home runs.

Detroit Wings

The Wings will be linked to every big name available over the next few days, and for good reason. Hockeytown has been starved of playoff hockey for nearly a decade and with a war chest of picks and prospects, they have a ton of flexibility to improve the roster any way they can. There is a widespread belief out there that this is some young, up-and-coming team. Sure, they have young pieces and a lot in the pipeline still to come through, but a big chunk of this roster is also either in their prime or on the back nine. They differ in that way from Atlantic Division rivals like the Canadiens and Sabres. The team isn’t good enough to make any real noise in the playoffs, so they should be going big-game hunting to really pull themselves into the mix, seeing as they can move some high picks and young pieces without impacting the future too much.  

Edmonton Oilers

For the Oilers, it’s more a case of what can they do vs. what should they do. Cap space is nonexistent so for every dollar in they need to move dollars out. They’re not going to make another move in net, despite what people seem to think. And they’re set on the back end after adding Connor Murphy. Bringing in some depth up front is all I expect here and a guy who fits the bill is Bobby McMann. He’s from the area and he comes dirt cheap, especially if the Leafs retain salary. They can fit him under the cap without much of a sweat and he can play up and down the lineup. Will a 2nd be enough to get it done? I would have thought so 24 hours ago, but after seeing what the Wild paid for Michael McCarron, I’m not so sure anymore.

Florida Panthers

Everything the Panthers do over these next couple days should be done with an eye on next season. They’ll be fully healthy again, and a year without a deep playoff run should help them be nice and rested going into next season. Evan Rodrigues is an obvious sell candidate to clear out some cap space, and I’d certainly explore trying to move impending UFAs Sergei Bobrovsky and AJ Greer. They can always move them with the intent of bringing them back in the summer, like the Canadiens did many years ago with Tomas Plekanec. Outside of those guys, there’s not much the Panthers can do over the next few days. Any bigger moves would likely come closer to the draft.

Los Angeles Kings

Firing Jim Hiller was the best deadline move the Kings could have made for their future. Everyone seems content on eulogizing them after a rough stretch, but I’m not quite there yet. The bigger issue is they have too many bloated contracts on the back end. In an ideal world they shore up the blue line by adding a respectable second-pairing guy, but it’s hard to see them taking that route after Ken Holland went and overpaid to bring in guys like Cody Ceci, Brian Dumoulin, and Joel Edmundson. They have the cap space, so I still think the best path forward is adding a guy like Oliver Ekman-Larsson, but that would require Holland to admit his mistake and make one of his failed veteran signings watch games from the press box. We’ll instead see them focus their attention on replacing Kevin Fiala. Patrik Laine is far from a perfect answer, but he would be a big boost for the league’s 26th-ranked power play that’s converting at just a 16.8% clip this season. He’s also got a point to prove over the final two months as he plays for a contract next season. Regardless, the Kings need to do something because as bad as it’s been for them this is their last hoorah with Anze Kopitar, and the Pacific Division is still bad enough where anything can happen provided they find their way into the playoffs.

Minnesota Wild

Center is the obvious need here and Vincent Trochek is a natural fit for this roster, but I do wonder about local guy Brock Boeser, too. Those two teams getting together for another sizeable in-season deal seems unlikely, though, and I’m not sure the Wild want to take on that contract as they try to maintain their flexibility to make an all-out push to get Quinn Hughes re-signed. This would be an intriguing destination for Shane Wright, too. He’s not the 2C they need, but he would be able to play up and down this lineup and give them enviable depth at the position along with Joel Eriksson Ek, Ryan Hartman, and Danila Yurov. They have a really good team, but need more up front to get them over the hump in a brutal Central Division. Overpaying for Michael McCarron can’t be their only deadline week add.

Montreal Canadiens

It figures to be a quiet deadline for the Canadiens outside of finding a new home for Patrik Laine, but it would be a mistake not to make a true push for Robert Thomas. It’s not often centers of that caliber, at that age, come available. He fits their cap structure and contention window perfectly. We don’t know prospect Michael Hage’s ceiling, but everyone in that organization would be thrilled if he became… Robert Thomas. Trading a guy you hope can become that, as part of a package for a guy who already is that, is a no brainer. If the ask is astronomical, it’s fine to walk, but Kent Hughes should be putting his very best foot forward here. I’d also explore an upgrade on the right side of defense if you can make a bigger splash for someone like Zach Whitecloud who is actually good and signed beyond this season, but wouldn’t waste my time with a depth guy like Luke Schenn. Arber Xhekaj has been fine and has fully earned an extended run in the lineup. His physicality will also come in handy come playoff time.

In terms of the goaltending, I wouldn’t do anything unless it came at a very low cost. Neither of Jakub Dobes or Sam Montembault have been convincing enough to snatch the job but are we sure Jordan Binnington and Sergei Bobrovsky are upgrades at this point? They’re last and second-last in Goals Saved Above Average this season, and both bottom five in Goals Saved Above Expected. They each have distinguished track records and a proven ability to elevate their games when it matters, but I’m not ponying up here given the seasons they’ve had. Bob is an impending UFA so I’d give a 2026 3rd or a 2027 2nd to bring him in, though I wonder if Florida would consider a straight swap for Montembault? They need someone to form a tandem with Daniil Tarasov next year. Binnington is trickier. He’s signed for $6 million next season, which would be an anchor of a contract if he doesn’t rediscover his form, so unless he comes borderline free (he won’t), I’m probably passing.

Nashville Predators

The next few days are extremely simple for the Predators: do anything you can to move on from the Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault contracts. That’s the top, and I’d argue only priority for them. Moving Ryan O’Reilly for the right return makes sense, but he has another year left at a reasonable cap hit so they can always re-visit that in the summer, or next deadline. They’re off to a good start with the Michael McCarron and Cole Smith deals.

New Jersey Devils

I wouldn’t trust Tom Fitzgerald to do much of anything here. There needs to be a much bigger conversation about what’s next in New Jersey. For the next couple days, take calls on some of your veteran depth guys (Nick Bjugstad, Evgenii Dadonov, Luke Glendening, Brenden Dillon) and the rest can be sorted in the summer under a new regime.

New York Islanders

In last week’s newsletter I had Connor Garland going to the Islanders in one of my mock trades, which appears to have legs all of a sudden. It makes so much sense for both team and player, so it would be cool to actually see that come to fruition. If they can’t pull it off, they need to quickly re-focus their efforts because they are in dire need of a top-six winger.

New York Rangers

Chris Drury already outlined their deadline plans in a letter to fans earlier this year. Artemi Panarin was shipped out, and I’m not sure who else they can realistically move this week outside of Vincent Trocheck. JT Miller and Mika Zibanejad aren’t conversations that will be seriously had over these next couple days. This is a mess made by Drury that should be cleaned up by someone else.

Ottawa Senators

No one in Ottawa will be ready to waive the white flag yet, and nor should they. But I also don’t believe they should be making moves for rentals. If they can pull something bigger off it should be for someone with term, especially with it being so hard to convince guys to sign in Ottawa. Those deals are unlikely to occur now, though. A depth winger to play on the third line, who comes at a low cost, would make the most sense for the Senators at the deadline, so they can stop playing Nick Cousins on the third line. Jaden Schwartz wouldn’t cost much and would give them a legitimate option to play with Shane Pinto on the third line.

Philadelphia Flyers

It’s a no-brainer to try and move Rasmus Ristolainen, who has another year left at $5.1 million, simply because he’s not very good. He’s the type of guy who will be coveted come playoff time for his size, and his game is certainly more conducive to playoff hockey one would figure, even though he’s still yet to play a single playoff game is his 13-year NHL career. Nicolas Deslauriers could fetch them a late pick, but it’s hard to see the Flyers doing much outside of that. It’s been reported that Owen Tippett is available, but I can’t see that coming to fruition before Friday. The Flyers need to take a step back and do some serious planning for this summer because there’s not a lot about this roster that makes sense and it’s hard to see a pathway to contention if they don’t start getting creative.

Pittsburgh Penguins

This is a weird spot for Kyle Dubas who, it must be said, has done a good job up to this point. They’re in a playoff spot and keep winning without Sidney Crosby, despite not playing particularly well. How long can this hold up for? Getting Crosby back into the playoffs would undoubtedly be awesome to see, but not capitalizing on moving some of their impending UFAs seems foolish for a team that has a second-round ceiling. It’s a delicate balance between not wanting to concede a playoff spot but also wanting to stay the course and build for the future. Given the fact that they still have a bunch of core guys in the twilight of their careers, it makes the most sense to me to listen to what’s out there but stand pat unless something really blows me away.

San Jose Sharks

Much like the Penguins, I think the best path forward for the Sharks these next few days is to do nothing. If someone knocks your socks off with an offer for Kiefer Sherwood, who they traded for a couple months back but don’t seem close to an extension with, then you do it. The same goes for John Klingberg and Mario Ferraro. Otherwise, you sit back and see if your young guys can play you into a playoff spot.

Seattle Kraken

This team is nowhere close to good enough and it would be a mistake not to do whatever they can to get something for impending UFAs Jaden Schwartz, Jordan Eberle, Eeli Tolvanen, and Jamie Oleksiak. I just don’t see the benefit of losing these guys for nothing so you can try and sneak into the playoffs to get railroaded in the first round. I’m not trading Shane Wright unless someone really ponies up, either. It’s generally not a great idea to trade a 22-year-old top pick at close to his lowest value.

St. Louis Blues

If I’m Doug Armstrong I simply don’t trade Robert Thomas. Why would you? I’ve never really been able to make sense of that one. Jordan Kyrou makes sense to shop – he’s good, but a luxury for a team loaded with wingers that’s trying to rebuild on the fly. The priority for me, though, would be Brayden Schenn. He’s been a loyal servant to this franchise for close to a decade, and won a Cup here, but his best hockey is behind him and that’s a contract – two years left at $6.5 million – you want to shed if you can. And then there’s Jordan Binnington. He’s had a miserable season but showed at the Olympics he can still be a gamer when it matters. That’s always been his thing. He seems pretty done in St. Louis and I wonder if a change of scenery will help him rediscover his game. Is he just burnt out there after so many years? Joel Hofer is the future there so the time is as good as any to move on, and there should be options for them to move his contract provided they’re ok with a muted return.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Any move the Lightning make will be a luxury. This is unquestionably the best team in the East and arguably the best team in the league. Simply getting and staying healthy would be enough for them – we haven’t seen their best 19 together at any point this season. I’m not even sure what their best 19 is though, as they have eight defensemen who should be playing regular NHL minutes. They have to be mindful of possibly losing Darren Raddysh this summer but can still afford to move a blue liner for an upgrade up front. Blake Coleman would be the home run, but there are a number of available wingers who would slot in as an upgrade on that third line.

Toronto Maple Leafs

I’m not sure there’s a clear pathway to the Leafs finding themselves back in contention next season. The roster needs a fair bit of work and they don’t have a ton of flexibility, especially on the back end where they’re paying a lot of declining veterans for several more years. They have a lot of dead weight and should spend the next couple days offloading as much of it as possible. There’s a dozen guys who should be candidates to be dealt. Realistically they’ll only move out a couple of bodies, but they need to be one of the most active teams this week, not only to make space on the roster, but to replenish a barren cupboard. Any picks or players they add can be flipped as part of bigger deals this summer if the goal is a quick retool. Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Bobby McMann are the musts for me. OEL, who turns 35 this summer and is having his best season in years, is an obvious sell-high candidate. Who knows what you get from him next year. McMann is reportedly looking for around $5 million per year on a five-year deal. That’s a hard pass. Get something for him while you can.

Utah Mammoth

There’s something of an Alex Tuch situation happening in Utah, where Nick Schmaltz is a UFA at season’s end. He’s already tied his career high in goals and is due a massive raise this summer. Cap space isn’t an issue for the Mammoth. The question is whether Schmaltz wants to cash in on the open market. I think they’re confident they can re-sign him, but regardless they aren’t moving him. It really does feel as though they want to go big-game hunting again. I’m sure they’d like a redo on the JJ Peterka deal, but Robert Thomas would be fascinating here. Running a top-six of Keller-Thomas-Schmaltz and Peterka-Cooley-Guenther is legit. If they don’t take a big swing, they need to improve their depth up front. You can’t have Kailer Yamamoto (5’9), Michael Carcone (5’9), and Alex Kerfoot (5’11 and 180 soaking wet) all taking regular shifts in your bottom six come playoff time. I wonder about Evander Kane or AJ Greer.

Vancouver Canucks

This isn’t as straightforward a fire sale as it is for some other rebuilding teams. The Canucks’ decline has been steep and unexpected. Anyone they trade, they’ll be doing so at their lowest value. They’re already comfortably in position to land the best odds at the first-overall pick, and all their best trade assets are signed beyond this season. Evander Kane is the only impending UFA of note. They should definitely be taking calls on everyone, but I wouldn’t rush anyone out the door for 10 cents on the dollar. They can have bigger conversations about Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser, Jake DeBrusk, Conor Garland, and others this summer, or beyond, without risking any diminished returns – their values can’t get any lower than they are right now.

Vegas Golden Knights

If they can make the money work – and they always seem to find a way – Vegas are an interesting landing spot for Binnington. Adin Hill has turned into a pumpkin and you can’t rely on Akira Schmid every night. Binnington is more than familiar with several of these guys (Mark Stone, Mitch Marner, Shea Theodore) from his time with Canada and going to a competitive team may be exactly what he needs to rediscover his form. The Knights always seem to have a surprise up their sleeve so I wouldn’t rule anything out here, but it feels like they made their big play already in Rasmus Andersson. They just need to get healthy now.

Washington Capitals

Missing the playoffs can’t be an option for the Capitals. They’re too good a team and the Metro is wide open once again. It would be a shame for Alex Ovechkin to not get another go at it in what could be his last season, too. I really like this roster and the middle six is very good. What they need is a replacement for Anthony Beauvillier on the top line. Blake Coleman or Jonathan Marchessault would look good there, and I also wonder about Kiefer Sherwood. Whoever it is, finding an upgrade on Beauvillier is a must.

Winnipeg Jets

The Jets are in a near identical position to the Leafs, only I think they have a clearer pathway to getting back to contention next season. They’re deeper and a bit younger up front, certainly younger on the back end, have a true number one in Josh Morrissey, Connor Hellebuyck in net, and still have their first-round pick. The margin for error is thin, but with the right moves they can be back to being a threat in the West as early as next season. Get what you can for impending UFAs Gustav Nyquist, Luke Schenn, and Logan Stanley. I’m also taking calls on Nino Niederreiter and Vladislav Namestnikov. Whatever picks you get can be used this summer, along with a surprisingly deep prospect pool, to re-tool around your core. 

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