The Hammer Monday Week 17/18 - Takeaways, Injuries and Early Leans

Suuma's Takeaways from Week 17
By: Suuma, NFL Originator

The 49ers offense is a juggernaut

This offense is terrifying. If Pearsall stays healthy, San Francisco might be the best team in the NFC after the Rams. They’re layered, explosive, and ruthless once they find rhythm. Everything feels inevitable. However, they have the worst defense among all playoff teams.

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Bears: I’m warming up to Caleb (a bit)

I’m more on board than I was earlier. The highlight plays are becoming more frequent, and more importantly, he’s not making many mistakes. That said: Ben Johnson’s clock management at the end vs SF was horrific, and this still feels like a potential one-and-done playoff team. The defense is bad — the pass rush against the Niners looked preseason-level. Odunze is dealing with a stress fracture, Luther Burden got carted off with a quad (doesn’t seem serious), and the margin for error is thin.

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Steelers are toast

You need extreme voodoo to win anything meaningful with this version of the Steelers. Nothing more to add.

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Stafford MVP discourse is weird to me… but

I’m wrapping my head around how Stafford can win MVP while the Rams are hovering around the 5-seed - or potentially land on the 6th seed. That said, it doesn’t matter what I think — it matters what the voters think. And right now, the market believes that the voters think Stafford deserves it (-250). Outside of raw volume stats, Maye has everything: division title, better seeding, EPA/play, and clearly more value relative to his supporting cast. I get him not playing the strongest schedule and not getting the 1st seed - with the Chargers most likely to rest starters in some capacity against Denver, the Pats will stick to the 2nd seed.

Still… I can absolutely see voters giving it to Stafford. He’s the favorite for a reason. The Rams are the best team. But Maye deserves it. And I know I might be irrational.

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Redraft: Shough and Ward go 1–2

If we’re redrafting today, Shough and Cam Ward go first and second. Shough has been incredible. Against the Titans, to quote Saints beat writer Nick Underhill: the Saints were missing WR2, WR3, RB1–RB3, RG, C, TE2 — and TE3 got hurt midgame. Didn’t matter. He’s now neck-and-neck with Tet McMillan in the OROY race (+110), sits at 5–3 as a starter, and could finish 6–3.

Forget the box score — watch him. Accuracy, pocket feel, aggression downfield, tight-window throws, real mobility. It looks like the Saints found their guy.

At the same time, Ward has shown enough freakish tape to still justify taking a QB early. The Titans coaching has been horrific, the environment awful — but Ward has made throws maybe five QBs in the league can make. Get him competent coaching and demand consistency. Also worth remembering who he’s throwing to: Elic Ayomanor, Chimere Dike, Gunnar Helm, Chig Okonkwo, Van Jefferson. And his fired HC looked like the worst in football.

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Texans: offense still a concern, but…

The offensive issues are still very real. The Texans caught the Chargers early, but after the second drive, they only managed to achieve two short field-goal-scores. Over the past three quarters, CJ Stroud completed five passes that actually gained positive yardage. That said, I actually like a Wild Card matchup vs Baltimore. The Ravens rank 30th in my pressure above expectation metric — that’s a matchup Houston can survive.

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Bills warning sign

If Josh Allen’s foot isn’t close to 100%, the Bills are cooked. The defense looked solid, but the Eagles offense was unserious and ultra-conservative again. Hurts had zero completions in the second half.

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Seahawks: offense could get them bounced

Seattle could be one-and-done if the offense doesn’t clean it up — unless they draw Carolina. You can’t live on 3–5 turnover-worthy plays per game in the playoffs.

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Bucs: it won’t happen, but they need a new HC

It won’t happen, but Bowles should be gone. He’s been carried by Baker and Coen for three years. The defense was never actually good. This collapse was exactly what people feared: lifeless, broken, done. 1–7 in their last eight, with the lone win a shaky one against the equally lifeless Cardinals. This team is finished.

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Bet note

Give me Panthers +3 / +3.5 next week (likely) without Jamel Dean and Haason Reddick.

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Rob and George's Early Leans for Week 18

Rob:
Cincinnati -7 (-115) vs. Cleveland

George:
Nothing

Both:
Carolina +3 vs. Tampa Bay
Tennessee/Jacksonville Over 45.5 (-115)
Philadelphia -7.5 vs. Washington

To watch their game by game analysis of Week 18 Click Here:

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Injuries We are Watching for Week 18
*Note for teams returning from bye, the list is made up of the injuries they had going into the bye week.

Arizona - OG Evan Brown (Inactive/Personal), WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (Left Game), CB Kei'Trel Clark (Injured Inactive), S Budda Baker (Injured Inactive), S Kitan Crawford (Left Game)
Atlanta - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Baltimore - QB Lamar Jackson (Injured Inactive), DT Taven Bryan (Working back from I.R.)
Buffalo - QB Josh Allen (Banged Up), TE Dalton Kincaid (Injured Inactive), OT Spencer Brown (Blurry vision), DT DaQuan Jones (Injured Inactive), DT Jordan Phillips (Injured Inactive), LB Terrel Bernard (Left Game), S Jordan Poyer (Injured Inactive), K Matt Prater (Injured Inactive)
Carolina - TE Ja'Tavion Sanders (Season over), DT Turk Wharton (Injured Inactive), LB Claudin Cherelus (Left Game), OG Robert Hunt (Working back from I.R.)
Chicago - WR Rome Odunze (Injured Inactive), Olamide Zaccheaus (Injured Inactive), EDGE Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (Left Game), LB Noah Sewell (Season likely over)
Cincinnati - EDGE Joseph Ossai (Injured Inactive)
Cleveland - TE David Njoku (Injured Inactive), TE Harold Fannin Jr. (Left Game), OG Teven Jenkins (Left Game), CB Myles Harden (Injured Inactive)
Dallas - RB Javonte Williams (Left Game), WR Ryan Flournoy (Injured Inactive), TE Jake Ferguson (Left Game), LB DeMarvion Overshown (Injured Inactive), CB Caelen Carson (Injured Inactive)
Denver - WR Pat Bryant (Injured Inactive), LB Dre Greenlaw (Injured Inactive), S Talanoa Hufanga (Left Game)
Detroit - WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (Left Game), OT Taylor Decker (Injured Inactive), OG Trystan Colon (Injured Inactive), DT Alim McNeill (Left Game), LB Alex Anzalone (Left Game), CB/S Avonte Maddox (Left Game), S Thomas Harper (Injured Inactive), OT Giovanni Manu (Working back from I.R.)
Green Bay - QB Jordan Love (Injured Inactive), QB Malik Willis (Left Game), WR Dontayvion Wicks (Left Game), OT Zach Tom (Injured Inactive), CB Nate Hobbs (Left Game), CB Kamal Hadden (Season over)
Houston - OT Trent Brown (Injured Inactive), OT Aireontae Ersery (Injured Inactive)
Indianapolis - C Tanner Bortolini (Injured Inactive), CB Sauce Gardner (Season likely over), QB Anthony Richardson Sr. (Working back from I.R.)
Jacksonville - RB Bhayshul Tuten (Injured Inactive), OG Patrick Mekari (Injured Inactive), C Robert Hainsey (Injured Inactive)
Kansas City - OT Jaylon Moore (Injured Inactive), DT Derrick Nnadi (Injured Inactive)
Las Vegas - QB Geno Smith (Season likely Over), OG Dylan Parham (Left Game), DT Adam Butler (Left Game), OT Kolton Miller Limited (Working back from I.R.)
L.A Chargers - RB Kimani Vidal (Injured Inactive), RB Hassan Haskins (Left Game), OT Jamaree Salyer (Injured Inactive), LB Denzel Perryman (Suspension Week 18), CB Benjamin St-Juste (Injured Inactive), S R.J. Mickens (Injured Inactive)
L.A Rams - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Miami - WR Jaylen Waddle (Banged Up), C Aaron Brewer (Injured Inactive), EDGE Chop Robinson (Left Game), LB Jordyn Brooks (Left Game), LB K.J. Britt (Left Game), S Minkah Fitzpatrick (Injured Inactive)
Minnesota - QB J.J. McCarthy (Injured Inactive), RB Jordan Mason (Injured Inactive), TE T.J. Hockenson (Injured Inactive), OT Brian O'Neill (Injured Inactive), S Theo Jackson (Left Game)
New England - WR Kayshon Boutte (Injured Inactive), OG Jared Wilson (Injured Inactive), EDGE Harold Landry (Injured Inactive), NT Khyiris Tonga (Injured Inactive), LB Robert Spillane (Injured Inactive), DT Milton Williams (Working back from I.R.)
New Orleans - RB Alvin Kamara (Injured Inactive), TE Jack Stoll (Left Game), OG Cesar Ruiz (Injured Inactive), DT Bryan Bresee (Injured Inactive)
New York Giants - TE Theo Johnson (Injured Inactive), DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches (Injured Inactive), CB Cor’Dale Flott (Injured Inactive), S Jevon Holland (Left Game)
New York Jets - QB Tyrod Taylor (Injured Inactive), RB Breece Hall (Left Game), RB Isaiah Davis (Left Game), TE Mason Taylor (Injured Inactive), CB Qwan'tez Stiggers (Left Game)
Philadelphia - OT Lane Johnson (Injured Inactive), LB Nakobe Dean (Injured Inactive), CB Michael Carter (Inactive/Personal)
Pittsburgh - WR D.K. Metcalf (Suspension Week 18), WR Calvin Austin III (Injured Inactive), TE Darnell Washington (Broken Arm), OG Isaac Seumalo (Injured Inactive), EDGE T.J. Watt (Injured Inactive), CB James Pierre (Injured Inactive), CB Brandin Echols (Injured Inactive)
San Francisco - TE George Kittle (Injured Inactive), OT Trent Williams (Left Game), CB Renardo Green (Injured Inactive), CB Upton Stout (Left Game)
Seattle - WR Rashid Shaheed (Left Game), OT Charles Cross (Injured Inactive), S Coby Bryant (Injured Inactive)
Tampa Bay - OT Tristan Wirfs (Injured Inactive), EDGE Haason Reddick (Left Game), EDGE Anthony Nelson (Injured Inactive), CB Jamel Dean (Left Game), DT Calijah Kancey (Working back from I.R.)
Tennessee - WR Van Jefferson (Season over), EDGE Arden Key (Left Game), CB Jalyn Armour-Davis (Season over), EDGE Oluwafemi Oladejo (Working back from I.R.)
Washington - QB Marcus Mariota (Injured Inactive), RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. (Injured Inactive), OT Laremy Tunsil (Injured Inactive), C Tyler Biadasz (Left Game), DT Daron Payne (Injured Inactive)


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