Pick Sellers and Scammers

One thing I like to do—both in betting and in life—is take a step back whenever I have a strong opinion and ask myself: Why do I believe this? Are my beliefs consistent and logical? If I learned about this topic today, would I still form the same opinion, or is this just something I’ve accepted over time without questioning?

Anyone who knows me knows I have strong beliefs about pick selling in sports betting. So I figured it’d be an interesting exercise to take a step back and really explore where my opinions on touts come from.

Before I dive in, I want to be upfront: I’m biased here. A pick seller who’s also a winning bettor is bad for me. As much as people like to say it’s "bettors vs. the books," the reality is that sports betting is much more bettor vs. bettor.

A sharp bettor who isn’t selling picks usually affects the market with their bets, sure—but their goal is often to preserve the market as long as possible so they can keep getting action down. A service like Establish The Run, on the other hand, has a different goal. While they might wait to release a pick until the market matures, once they do release it, the entire market shifts immediately and dramatically. Even if ETR and a sharp bettor are equally skilled, the impact of ETR’s release will have a far greater affect on the market.

All that said—for my personal ability to make money—the sharp, non-pick-selling bettor is far less problematic than ETR. But I’m going to do my best to remove that bias and look at this issue fairly. If a tout is clearly winning and providing value to their subscribers, then that’s a good thing, even if it’s bad for me.

The Landscape of Touts

If you’ve listened to the Elf space at all over the past two months, you’ve heard people screaming about scams and grifts. A lot of these accusations (unless they’re coming from Man of the Vig) are just one pick seller going after another.

But in my head, there’s a pretty clear split between respected and non-respected pick sellers.

Guys like DK_DFS and Brett Feinsod are in that respected bucket. Amanda Vance, Man of the Library, and Beau Wagner? Not so much. I’m not saying that respect is necessarily deserved—but that line, to me, comes down to whether the person at least seems like a winning bettor to anyone experienced in the space.

So let’s break it down: pick sellers who plausibly win vs. pick sellers who clearly don’t.

Pick Sellers Who "Win"

This category includes anyone who either does win at sports betting or seems like they plausibly could. And before I get into the criticisms, I want to acknowledge something:

I get it.

If you’re a sharp bettor, you eventually hit the point where you’re limited everywhere—on your own accounts, your beards, whatever. And at that point, it’s not understandable to me why people consider selling picks. Scaling a betting operation takes work, time, money, and risk—and not everyone wants to go that route. Pick selling can seem like the cleaner option.

Now, onto the criticism.

Winning for yourself is way easier than winning for a group of people. Once you’re established and you release a play to hundreds of subscribers, the line is going to move fast. ETR and Right Angle Sports are the best examples of this. Their plays move in seconds. Books likely subscribe to their content to see what they’re betting.

The core debate around these kinds of sellers usually comes down to one thing: the pick seller shows up X number of units, and gambling Twitter pushes back, arguing there’s no way the subs are able to get the numbers that are posted by the pick seller.

That criticism often holds water.

The more successful and well-known a pick seller becomes, the faster lines move—and the worse the experience becomes for their subs. So the two big questions that matter here are:

1. What percentage of subs actually win from these pick sellers?

2. How much of that responsibility lies with the seller vs. the buyer?

Let’s start with #1. My biggest issue with every pick sellers, even the ones I like—is that I’ve never seen anyone track what percentage of subs win using their service.

Why not? It wouldn’t even be that hard. You release a play. Track how many subs get it, the average price they got, and how much they bet. Then you can build personalized tracking for each sub and get a real answer to the question: how many people are actually winning?

Instead, pick sellers advertise their own record—and imply or outright say that subs will win too. But if most of your subs are losing due to adverse selection, getting worse numbers, or just paying for the subscription itself, then what you’re doing edges into scam territory. Nobody advertises, “There’s a 40% chance you’ll make money if you subscribe!”.

This brings us to #2. Isn’t some of the responsibility on the person buying picks?

Sure. People need to make better decisions. But the seller has way more knowledge. They’re the expert. They know the realities of line movement, timing, and variance. The buyer often doesn’t—and might just assume they’re running bad.

So yeah, people can buy and sell picks however they want. It’s a free market. But I also have the freedom to think you’re a shitty person if you sell picks that most of your subs lose money on.

And if you want to prove me wrong? Track your subs' results. Simple.

Pick Sellers Who Lose

This should be a much simpler issue. But apparently, in the last few months of Elf spaces, even this has gotten murky.

So let me be crystal clear:

If someone presents themselves as a winning sports bettor—but they are not—they are a scammer.

It’s no different than selling fake concert tickets or fake electronics. If you know you’re a losing bettor, but you convince people to pay you by pretending you win, that is a textbook scam.

The definition of a scam is “intentionally misleading people for personal gain, usually financial.” If the shoe fits...

And it doesn’t matter if you’re likable, or have a big following, or seem like a cool guy. You’re still a scammer.

Of course, all pick sellers aren’t exactly the same, and each case is different. But overall, after writing this all out I think it boils down to one thing: If you want to be respected, prove that your subs win. And if you can do that, I have absolutely no problem with you.