Southeast Division Preview

Holy, the NBA is right around the corner. Today I’ll be diving into the Southeast division.

Orlando Magic

The most under-discussed story in the NBA right now is Jalen Suggs’ knee. He suffered a rare injury, hasn’t played basketball in eight months, and still hasn’t been cleared for full 5-on-5 work. The Magic are a legitimately solid team with real Finals upside — but Suggs is a key piece of that.

A few years ago, Orlando’s depth was a strength. Now, the roster is much more top-heavy — which is fine, if Suggs stays healthy and productive. Tyus Jones is a fine addition but probably overrated at this point, and he’s the only clear defensive target in the rotation. Anthony Black, for now, remains a total zero offensively. If Suggs returns soon and looks like himself, this team is really good. If not, they’re in trouble.

The other big question: how good are Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero, really? Both are obviously good, but for Orlando to win a title, one of them likely needs to make a top-10-player-in-the-league type leap.

Franz advanced numbers are elite, and he may just be the best player on this team going forward. Franz needs to get his shot back to some degree, he shot 35.5% on 630 threes in his first two years, but since then the three has been a total disaster shooting below 30% the last two seasons. Orlando is still pretty light on shooting even after adding Bane, and Franz needs that shot to be at least functional.

As for Paolo, his reputation outpaces his production so far. ESPN has him 17th in its Top 100, with Franz at 32nd, but up to this point Wagner has clearly been the better player. Paolo has been a high-turnover, low-efficiency scorer who lives at the line — but he only shoots 73% once he gets there. The pro-Paolo case is that he’s been operating without spacing or much secondary creation around him. This season will test that theory.

There’s still massive upside: he’s huge, a terrific ball-handler and passer for his size, and has the frame to dominate if it all clicks. If Paolo puts it together — and Suggs is healthy — this team could be very good. But there are still real questions.

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks have a real chance to be awesome this year in a shitty eastern conference. I have a significant tier drop after the top four (Cle, NYK, ORL ATL). Their top six — Trae Young, Jaden Daniels, Jalen Johnson, Kristaps Porziņģis, Onyeka Okongwu, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker — is legitimately strong. With this much talent around him, Trae needs to be better. Atlanta plays with pace, spacing, and shooting, and that should help him get back into the high-50s to low-60s true-shooting range.

Kristaps had a strange season last year, dealing with a mystery illness, I’m not sure I can totally write that off and assume he’s 100%, but it does seem like he’s mostly back. He should fit great with this group, he’s a bit slow but can hit 30-foot trail threes, and the KP/Onyeka center rotation should allow for 5 out spacing at pretty much all times for Atlanta.

For Atlanta to really pop, they’ll likely need a leap from either Risacher or Jalen Johnson. Risacher remains a major question mark — a No. 1 pick from a weak draft who had a perfectly respectable rookie season. He looked good down the stretch when lots of teams were tanking. m not exactly sure how to project his career, you can see him being pretty good at a lot of things, but not sure he has any defining skill that could make him a star. If he could get to being a plus starter the Hawks will be very good.

And then there’s Onyeka Okongwu, who might be the best bench player in the league. I’ve bet him heavily for Sixth Man of the Year — and I think Zach Lowe mentioning him on a pod may have tanked the market. It’ll be a sweat with how many games he starts, but if he qualifies, he’ll be right there in the mix for the award.

Charlotte Hornets

My main takeaway from doing Hornets prep is that LaMelo Ball isn’t long for this team. He’s heading into his sixth season, and the roster around him makes it clear the organization doesn’t view him as the franchise cornerstone. If they did, they’d have added real pieces this offseason to see if they could at least be respectable. Instead, they’re rolling with a center rotation of Ryan Kalkbrenner, Moussa Diabaté, and Mason Plumlee.

LaMelo was drafted by the previous regime, and he remains entirely unserious as a basketball player — and it feels like Charlotte knows it. My guess is the front office sees the core as Brandon Miller and Kon Knueppel, and they’re ready to bottom out again to add another blue-chip prospect. I could see LaMelo being dealt midseason, though he’s a tough piece to fit, so a trade next offseason feels more likely.

I agree with Charlotte’s approach. They’re nowhere close to good, and another tank year makes sense, especially with what looks like a loaded draft coming up. This is a massive year for Brandon Miller, who needs to take a clear step forward if the Hornets want to start climbing out of the bottom. Tidjane Salaün might already be the biggest bust since James Bouknight. The good news is Knueppel looked awesome in Summer League, has been solid in preseason, and I think he’s going to be a really good player.

One trade I think makes a lot of sense — and I haven’t seen it mentioned anywhere — is Miles Bridges for Jonathan Kuminga. The Warriors might want a bit more back, but Kuminga fits well in Charlotte as another young piece with upside. And if Golden State is trying to compete and Kerr still doesn’t trust Kuminga, I could see that being a realistic deadline deal.

Washington Wizards

For how long it’s felt like the Wizards have been tanking, it’d be nice to feel really good about at least one of their prospects. They have plenty of them — and I don’t view any as outright busts — but there also isn’t a single player I look at and think, yeah, he’s going to be really good. The good news is the sheer volume of young talent means they still have multiple shots at hitting on someone.

I lean under on their win total, but similar to Utah, all they really need is one or two year-two jumps to get to over 20.5 wins. I also think swapping Kyle Kuzma and Jordan Poole for Khris Middleton and CJ McCollum will help — both for stabilizing the team this season and for giving their young guys a better developmental environment.

I don’t lump their center rotation in with the true black-hole groups (Hornets, Celtics, Pelicans, Pacers) only because Alex Sarr should be playing a ton — and he’s probably their best prospect. Still, the center minutes will likely be rough; a Bagley vs. Tristan Vukčević backup battle is about as bad as it gets.

I remain relatively high on Sarr’s long-term outlook. The start of last season was some of the worst big-man shooting we’ve seen, but Washington is giving him the freedom to fire away, and the fact he’s willing and capable of that volume is a good sign. He was a poor defender last season, but averaging 2.2 stocks per game is encouraging. Out of the 7 or so prospects on this roster, Sarr and Tre Johnson clearly have the highest upside.

I’m also excited to see Cam Whitmore in a situation where he can do what he wants. He has plenty of flaws, but his scoring has been legitimately impressive through his first two seasons. Even if his most likely outcome is as a high-volume bench scorer, there’s some real upside there.

Kyshawn George might actually be the most ready of the young guys right now. People around the team seem to think he’ll become a very good defender, and if the three-point shot comes around, he could absolutely turn into a legitimate NBA starter.

By my count, this team has seven reasonable NBA prospects — Sarr, Whitmore, A.J Johnson, George, Bub Carrington, Bilal Coulibaly, and Tre Johnson — and I’m most interested to see which, if any, take the step into legitimate NBA-player status this season.

Miami Heat

Miami and Toronto feel like they’re in a pretty similar spot — two teams with enough decent players to compete for a play-in or low playoff seed if they want to in a weak East. Miami’s preseason has been particularly interesting, though: they actually look like they’re going to play up-tempo after being one of the league’s slowest teams for as long as I can remember.

I’ve got a few player award bets on this team. First, Nikola Jović for Most Improved at 50-1. He’s the ideal age for the award — going into his fourth year, so not too young to be dismissed, but not too old for a real leap. It looks like he’s won the starting job, and when he’s been healthy, he’s quietly been pretty solid. The question is whether he’ll have enough scoring volume to make a real case, but if Miami truly commits to playing faster — and with Herro injured to start the year — Jović could post a noticeable bump in points, rebounds, and assists.

The other one is Davion Mitchell for Sixth Man at 60-1. I have the same concern with him — the box-score stats might not get high enough — but it sounds like he’s set to come off the bench even with Herro out. He might still play 35 minutes off the bench for the first month or so, and he was very effective in that role last season.

The other big question for this team: is Kel’el Ware actually good, or just another Christian Wood archetype? It’s been a rough offseason for him, with Spoelstra reportedly frustrated about his inconsistency and lack of winning impact. On paper, Ware should be awesome — he’s huge, moves well, and has some touch — but he might just be playing basketball because he happens to be enormous. His Summer League showing was shockingly unimpactful for someone with his tools.

Overall, the Heat are somewhat directionless, but good enough to hang around the play-in mix. The one advantage they have over Toronto (sadly) is that they can at least dream of landing a star via trade or free agency.