Story Time

Today’s newsletter is going to be quite different from the others so far. It’ll be much shorter, and there won’t be any opinions from me — just a story that happened to me over the past week of betting. I want this newsletter to give a peek behind the curtain of the betting world, and I think this is a good example. It’s also a pretty funny and crazy story.

I’m going to keep the details vague for what I think are obvious reasons, but the important parts are accurate.

Over the last month, I’ve been periodically talking to an originator I’ve become friends with, and I know he’s a solid bettor. He told me about an edge he found on a specific book — one that could be parlayed or round-robined — and there were a ton of iterations, so the EV was big. The first round-robin was something like fifteen bets, it did quite well, and everything was great.

Then, last Friday, he messaged me the next round-robin: two different sets of plays — one with 12 plays, one with 8. It’s the busy season in the NBA and I’ve been grinding like crazy. I wanted to get these bets in, but they weren’t exactly my top priority at the time. I quickly bet them and, about an hour later, realized I had fucked up — I’d bet the 12 plays, and then a different subset of the 12 plays for the second round-robin.

I messaged the originator asking if the remaining 7 plays were still good to bet. He replied that some of them had moved but still had an edge, and that I should bet them. The reason there were only 7 now was because one game had already ended — and that play would have won if I hadn’t screwed up.

The day goes on — I’m not really paying attention — and the originator messages me that one of the 7-leg round-robin plays lost, but that the original bet would have won. The plays bled into the next day, and the rest all won. The round-robin I was supposed to bet (but didn’t) went 8-0 — all plus-money plays. I would have won $1.5 million on the $5,000 risked if I hadn’t messed it up.

The actual round-robin I did bet went 6-1 and paid quite well, but nowhere close to what I would have won.

So, yeah — that’s the story. My dumbass clicking buttons and not paying attention cost me $1.5 million.

I think the natural question is: How fucking pissed was I?

And the honest answer is — it didn’t get to me that bad. Not because $1.5 million isn’t a lot of money to me — it obviously is a fuck ton of money. But I’ve had “bad beats” that cost me way less and tilted me way more. I’m not exactly sure why this didn’t hit as hard. Maybe because I still won some on the round-robin. Maybe because it was entirely my fault. I’m not sure.

But yeah — unfortunate, and a wild story I thought people might enjoy.

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