Taking stock of the league’s worst teams

As I’ve mentioned many times in this newsletter, one of my favourite parts of following sports is focusing on team-building. Typically, team-building strategy is a lot more interesting for the bottom teams in the league. If you’re OKC, you get to laugh at every other team. If you’re Denver, Houston, Cleveland, or New York, your job is mostly done. Maybe you can make a deadline deal, but you’re mostly just hoping your team is good enough.

But if you’re one of the worst teams in the league, the season is mostly for tanking — but also evaluating where you are as a team and where you should go next. I also think the top teams get plenty of coverage, but there are very few national reporters focusing on the Nets or the Kings.

Today I’m going to take a quick look at the bottom five teams in the league. There are five teams currently with a Cleaning the Glass net rating of –12.9 or worse: the Wizards, Nets, Kings, Pacers, and Pelicans.

Wizards: –15.7 net rating

The Wizards just lost (or won, depending how you look at it) the toilet bowl to the Nets by twenty. But I actually think there’s legitimately good news here. Before the season I wrote about how the Wizards have been horrible for a while and don’t have any real blue-chip prospects to show for it. Through fourteen games, their two best players have been Kyshawn George and Alex Sarr — and both of them are showing signs of being potentially very good pros.

George was drafted 24th overall in the 2024 draft, and coming into the season he was thought of as more of a three-and-D type prospect who had a surprisingly solid rookie year. But he’s playing on-ball a ton — he’s averaging 69 touches a game, easily first on the Wizards and in line with some true lead ballhandlers. George has been very solid in this role: he has a 63% true shooting (well above league average) and is averaging 4.8 assists per game. He’s turning the ball over a ton and cannot stop fouling, but for the 24th pick last year he’s looking like a massive steal in a weak draft and absolutely could be a high-end starter in the future.

Alex Sarr has also been really solid. After having one of the worst big-man shooting seasons in NBA history, he’s up to 57.8% true shooting on 18 PPG — not bad efficiency for the role they’re asking him to fill. He’s stuck to his goal from preseason of cutting down his threes. Last year, 38% of Sarr’s shots were threes; this year only 20%. I think the three will absolutely be a weapon in his game going forward, but I also agree with the development plan of building his game inside-out rather than letting him chuck like last season.

He’s also shooting 9% better at the rim this year, with an 11% increase in frequency. I don’t think Sarr is a good defender yet — he’s still pretty thin and weak for an NBA center — but he’s increased his already solid block rate and I think he projects to be a good defensive center.

You may be thinking: two Wizards prospects have taken a leap, so how are they this bad? It’s because the rest of the team has been utterly atrocious. McCollum has been awful and is shooting 41% from two. Bub Carrington has been the single worst player in the NBA so far — he is somehow shooting 23% from two. The team has a negative 25.6 net rating with Bub on the floor this season.

It’s time to fire Brian Keefe. Generally, if a coach is good, even on a bad team you see some signs. I have seen none of those signs in Keefe. Overall, despite how bad this team is, I’d much rather this than have five wins because CJ and Middleton are playing well and the young guys are sucking. So it’s not actually that bad in Washington.

Brooklyn Nets: –13.9 net rating

The Nets’ best asset is also their worst: Jordi Fernandez. He’s pretty obviously an awesome coach, but I think fans are still scared after last season’s failure to tank. Look, they only have two wins and should be fine, but two days ago a Nets podcast title was: “Brooklyn Nets BLOWOUT Win Over Wizards Sparks TANK PANIC Among Fans.” Obviously, that’s overblown, but I do get it to some degree — they drafted five rookies and only two are in the rotation, and those two get benched if the game is close.

That being said, I’d rather have a good coach who doesn’t want to tank than Brian Keefe.

The most interesting story for the Nets so far is Michael Porter Jr., who has been very good considering his new role. He’s averaging 24 points, his usage has spiked by 9%, and he’s barely seen a drop in efficiency despite shooting worse from three. The interesting thing is he’s not doing nearly as much additional self-creation as you’d expect playing for the Nets instead of next to Jokic in Denver. He’s only averaging .13 more dribbles per touch this season, and 73% of his baskets are assisted — down from 81% last year but still below league average.

He’s similar to Lauri Markkanen in that he’s an elite spot-up player and needs no space to get his shot off. He’s also an effective cutter and offensive rebounder and is super efficient from everywhere. It was assumed his contract was totally dead money, but if he’s actually this good, maybe the Nets could deal him for something.

There’s not much else to say about this team. Cam Thomas got hurt early and seems destined to find another team. Egor Demin looks like a legit three-point shooter after not being able to shoot at all at BYU, which is very promising, but he can’t get up twos yet, let alone make them. Drake Powell finally got healthy and has been solid in limited minutes.

This team is a long way away from being anything, but so far they’re on schedule.

Sacramento Kings: –13.9 net rating

I guess I’m in a good mood tonight, because I’m going to spin this disastrous Kings season in a positive light. If this team were 8–8 with Sabonis and DeMar playing well, it would embolden Vivek to keep going down this absolutely disastrous path. But it’s been so bad that’s no longer an option.

Doug Christie was trying to get this team to be a high-pickup, aggressive defensive team. I admire his optimism, but I also question his sanity in thinking LaVine and DeMar were going to buy into that system. Christie might not be the coach of the Kings by the time this article gets published, and I don’t think there’s any point in writing about the players who won’t be on the team by season’s end.

The best way to get out of a hole is to stop digging, and this start has effectively taken the shovel out of Vivek’s hands.

Indiana Pacers: –13.7 net rating

Again, I’m in a good mood, because I truly believe this is a dream start to the season for the Pacers. Obviously it sucks to go from Game 7 of the NBA Finals to being included in this article, but the Pacers got their pick back in an all-time lucky trade, and now they’ll have one of the best tradeable assets in the league when Haliburton returns.

It’s also not like their good players have been horrible — it’s just been a ton of injuries. Siakam is struggling some, but they’re asking him to do too much. Nembhard was never supposed to be a true lead guard for a good NBA offense, but he’s been respectable in that role. Mathurin has put up completely insane stats in his four games: 27.8 PPG on 68% true shooting and twelve free throws a game. Those numbers probably won’t continue, but it’s still a great sign.

The big question: should they trade for Anthony Davis or one of the other disgruntled stars (Kyrie, Ja, Trae, LaMelo, Kawhi?, Giannis??). Plenty of those players don’t fit next to Haliburton, but it’s rare a pick this valuable hits the market. I imagine it’ll be the best trade asset in the NBA this summer. The Pacers were just in the Finals, and it’s possible they could get a player superior to Myles Turner for next season.

New Orleans Pelicans: –12.9 net rating

The Derrick Queen trade is one of those deals that gets criticized a ton, but honestly the criticism was understated. The Pelicans came into the year with a win total of 30.5 — and that included the fact that they didn’t have their own pick! To be so delusional as to trade an unprotected pick when your win total is 30.5 is pretty unreal.

That being said, Queen has been pretty good so far. I worry about his non-ceiling outcomes though. He’s a 6'10" center with a 7-foot wingspan who doesn’t move his feet great and doesn’t project as a great rim protector. He also isn’t really a three-point threat. The 90th-percentile outcomes are great — the offense flows through him and you build around his weaknesses. But if he’s just good and not great, it becomes very hard to fit him onto a good team.

Despite an only-OK start, I do think Jeremiah Fears is very legit. He gets to the rim a ton — a great sign for a rookie point guard. He’s athletic, has good size, and a great handle. He hasn’t passed the ball at all — he’s in the zeroth percentile for point-guard assist rate — but that’s a common rookie trait.

I saw a report today that the Pelicans are considering a win-now move despite being 2–13. I pray for all Pelicans fans that’s not true. I think despite not having their pick, it’s time to move on from Zion and start building around these two rookies and hope they hit.

Out of all the teams we’ve talked about today, I think these Pelicans are maybe the most hopeless.