The Hammer Drop Monday Week 10 NFL - NFL Takeaways, Injuries & Early Bets

Suuma's Takeaways from Week 9
By: Suuma, NFL Originator 

You can Follow Suuma on Twitter/X

Bills at Vikings is tonight and isn't included. Pressure and time-to-throw numbers run
through Week 8.

Misleading box scores of the week

The scoreboard tells you who won. It doesn't always tell you who played better. Each week we rebuild every game from its drives: how often a team's plays actually helped it (success rate, meaning a play that leaves the offense better placed to score than before), how far its drives got, and how much of the scoring came from bounces that rarely repeat, like turnovers, return touchdowns and short fields handed over by the other side. The result is our True Score.

One caveat before we start: this is one model among many. Others weigh these things differently and will land somewhere else. None of this changes who won. It's just a different view on how things shook out.

Buccaneers 24, Bears 27 · True Score: TB 20.1, CHI 31.9

Chicago gave the ball away five times, took it away only twice, and still won. Since 2003, teams that lost the turnover battle by three or more have won just 7% of their regularseason games. The box score starts to make sense once you follow where those five giveaways went.

Caleb Williams's first two interceptions were deep balls caught at the Tampa 3 and the Tampa 18, so they worked almost like punts. Tampa got nothing out of either possession, and the first one ended on a failed fourth-and-1 at its own 35. The third came with 43 seconds left in the half, an incompletion that replay turned into an interception, and it cost a field goal.

The fourth was the strange one. It put Tampa at the Chicago 37, trailing 17-13, and two plays later Baker Mayfield threw a short pass that Jaylon Johnson returned 67 yards for a touchdown. Only the last giveaway really hurt: Luther Burden fumbled at the Chicago 19 with 3:48 left and the Bears up 24-16, and Tampa turned it into a touchdown and a two-point conversion to tie the game.

All told, five giveaways produced 11 Tampa points, and Johnson took seven of them straight back. Chicago's offense scored only three points between its first two drives and its last, but that last drive covered 53 yards and ended with Cairo Santos's 38-yard field goal with three seconds left.

The 12-point True Score gap needs an explanation. Both teams averaged −0.22 EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap moves a team toward or away from scoring), a measure that counts every turnover in full. Our model credits a defense with only about 40% of a turnover's value, because turnovers say less about future games than drives do. So the turnover battle costs Chicago only about one point here, while the pick-six adds 3.4, the way the Bears' touchdowns were scored adds about 5, and their better success rate (43% to 39%, plus 7 of 13 on third down to Tampa's 2 of 12) adds about 3.

If you think four interceptions from your quarterback aren't noise, trust EPA on this one: a coin flip Chicago happened to win. The last time the Bears gave it away five times, against Green Bay in Week 5, they lost 31-7.

Packers 45, Patriots 27 · True Score: GB 35.3, NE 31.8

An 18-point win that True Score reads as a three-point game. New England gave the ball away four times. A Drake Maye interception on the Patriots' second snap handed Green Bay the ball at the 14, and a third-quarter fumble led to a 39-yard touchdown on the very next play: 15 points on three snaps.

The two teams were nearly level in success rate (45% to 44%), and New England finished with 387 yards and four touchdowns. Two of those touchdowns came while trailing by 28 and 24, and the model doesn't discount garbage time, because filtering it out made the model worse when we tested it. So New England's number is flattering.

None of that is a knock on Jordan Love, who went 23-of-29 for 372 yards and was the best player on the field. More on him below.

Browns 22, Saints 23 (OT) · True Score: CLE 16.5, NO 26.1

New Orleans needed overtime and a failed two-point try to beat a team it outplayed. The Saints were successful on 44% of their plays to Cleveland's 34% and reached the red zone five times to the Browns' two.

Cleveland got its points in chunks: a 64-yard touchdown to KC Concepcion, a 60-yard completion to Denzel Boston that set up a field goal, a 51-yard field goal with 12 seconds left in regulation and a 39-yard touchdown to Harold Fannin in overtime.

The Saints gave chances away too, with a fumble at the Cleveland 2 and a missed 52-yarder. The Browns, meanwhile, wasted their biggest gift when a muffed punt at the New Orleans 19 ended in a stuffed fourth-and-1 at the 1. In overtime, New Orleans went 74 yards in 11 plays. Cleveland answered with a touchdown and went for two and the win. The pass fell incomplete.

Broncos 26, Panthers 21 · True Score: DEN 26.4, CAR 27.2 — wrong winner

The closest call of the four: a toss-up the model tilts to the losing team by less than a point. Carolina was slightly better on a per-play basis (47% success rate to 44%), outgained Denver 353 to 313 and had 10 explosive plays to Denver's four.

Three moments decided it. A 43-yard field goal sailed wide right. Leading 14-13 late in the third quarter, the Panthers drove 87 yards in 12 plays to first-and-goal at the 1, where Bryce Young's pass was ruled incomplete — until Denver's challenge turned it into an interception in the end zone. And trailing by five with 1:24 left at the Denver 36, Young was sacked and stripped by Nik Bonitto. Carolina also took 13 penalties for 119 yards.

To be fair to Denver, Bo Nix threw an interception at the Carolina 5, so the Broncos left points out there too.

Jordan Love has a real MVP case — as long as you start the clock in Week 5

Since Week 5, only Joe Burrow has been better per dropback. Love is at +0.31 EPA over 198 dropbacks, capped by Sunday's 372 yards, three touchdown passes, a rushing touchdown and no interceptions in New England.

The context is what makes it interesting. Green Bay's designed runs rank 31st in EPA and 31st in yards per carry (3.17). Josh Jacobs missed the first six games and is averaging 2.2 yards a carry since coming back. PFF ranks the Packers' pass blocking and run blocking 32nd of 32, and 13 different linemen have taken snaps.

The pressure numbers aren't as bad as those grades suggest: through Week 8, Green Bay is mid-table in pressure allowed. A big reason is Love himself. His average time to throw of 2.30 seconds is the fastest in the league, and he still throws deep more often than almost anyone. No run game, a patchwork line, and he's getting it done anyway.

The case has limits, though. Over the full season, Love ranks eighth in EPA per dropback — behind the likes of Brock Purdy, Josh Allen, Trevor Lawrence and Burrow — and 18th in success rate. Through Week 8, he was 13th, and the Chicago and New England games alone supply 63% of his season EPA. The Packers also lean on a defense with 19 takeaways, second in the league. Candidate, yes. Favorite, not yet.

Jacksonville and Cincinnati: one contender, one question mark

Both teams are 6-2, and they aren't built alike.

Jacksonville looks like the real thing
The Jaguars lead the league in net EPA per play (offense minus defense) at +0.278 and in point differential at +13.5 a game, and they rank third in EPA on both sides of the ball. None of the last ten Super Bowl teams was that good at this point in the season; the 2022 Eagles came closest at +0.253. Their remaining schedule is also the easiest in the league by our ratings.

Two cautions apply. They've intercepted 3.8% of opposing dropbacks, about twice the league rate, which is unlikely to last — and without turnover plays, they drop to fourth. And all of their point differential comes from four blowouts, including Sunday's 33-10 win at Baltimore against a backup quarterback. In the other four games, they're −3. 

Cincinnati is harder to call
The offense is excellent: fourth in EPA, second in success rate, first on third down, with Burrow the second-best quarterback in our model. The defense isn't close. It ranks 14th in EPA and 27th after adjusting for opponents, and no recent Super Bowl team stood lower than 22nd at this point.

The six wins came against teams with a combined 15-36 record, and the Bengals are 0-2 against teams above .500. True Score is kinder: it gave them the better side of both losses, against Pittsburgh in Week 3 and Jacksonville in Week 4, so they aren't a mirage either. The Steelers visit on Sunday night with a chance to answer the question.

It's only eight games each, and teams on both sides of these marks have surprised people before.


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Rob and Clive's Early Leans for Week 10

KC/ATL under 46.5 -110
IND/MIA under 41.5 -110
NO +1.5 -110
BAL -3.5 -115

For a detailed breakdown of every Week 10 game watch The Sunday Reset


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Injuries We are Watching for Week 10
*Note for teams returning from bye, the list is made up of the injuries they had going into the bye week.

Arizona - RB Bam Knight (Injured Inactive), OG Jon Gaines II (Injured Inactive), OT Jayden Williams (Injured Inactive), DT Roy Lopez (Left Game)
Atlanta - WR Zachariah Branch (Injured Inactive)
Baltimore - CB Nate Wiggins (Injured Inactive), S Kyle Hamilton (Left Game), S Jaylinn Hawkins (Injured Inactive)
Buffalo - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Carolina - OG Damien Lewis (Injured Inactive), EDGE Jaelan Phillips (Injured Inactive), LB Bobby Okereke (Injured Inactive), CB Will Lee III (Injured Inactive), OG/OT Brady Christensen (Working back from I.R.)
Chicago (Bye Week) - RB Kyle Monangai (Injured Inactive), WR Luther Burden III (Left Game), CB Malik Muhammad II (Injured Inactive), CB Tyrique Stevenson (Left Game)
Cincinnati - S Kyle Dugger (Injured Inactive)
Cleveland - DT Maliek Collins (Injured Inactive)
Dallas - WR George Pickens (Injured Inactive), WR KaVontae Turpin (Injured Inactive), WR Jonathan Mingo (Left Game), TE Jake Ferguson (Left Game), TE Luke Schoonmaker (Injured Inactive), EDGE Donovan Ezeiruaku (Left Game), LB DeMarvion Overshown (Injured Inactive), LB Dee Winters (Left Game), CB Joey Porter Jr. (Injured Inactive), S PJ Locke III (Left Game), DT Jonathan Bullard (Working back from I.R.)
Denver (Bye Week) - WR Jaylen Waddle (Left Game), CB Riley Moss (Left Game), CB Kris Abrams-Draine (Injured Inactive), S Talanoa Hufanga (Injured Inactive), S Brandon Jones (Injured Inactive)
Detroit - C Cade Mays (Injured Inactive), EDGE D.J. Wonnum (Injured Inactive), CB D.J. Reed (Injured Inactive), S Kerby Joseph (Working back from I.R.)
Green Bay - RB Josh Jacobs (Left Game), RB Marshawn Lloyd (Injured Inactive), C Sean Rhyan (Injured Inactive), OG Travis Glover (Injured Inactive), LB Zaire Franklin (Injured Inactive), LB Isaiah McDuffie (Left Game), LB Ty'Ron Hopper (Left Game), RB Chris Brooks (Working back from I.R.), EDGE Micah Parsons (Working back from PUP)
Houston - RB David Montgomery (Injured Inactive), CB Derek Stingley Jr. (Left Game), S Reed Blankenship (Injured Inactive)
Indianapolis - OT Jalen Travis (Left Game), LB Jaylon Carlies (Left Game), LB Akeem Davis-Gaither (Injured Inactive), CB Justin Walley (Injured Inactive), S AJ Haulcy (Injured Inactive)
Jacksonville - Nothing of note
Kansas City - WR Xavier Worthy (Left Game), OT Jaylon Moore (Left Game), DT Peter Woods (Injured Inactive), CB Mansoor Delane (Injured Inactive)
Las Vegas - OG Trey Zuhn III (Left Game), DT Thomas Booker (Injured Inactive)
L.A Chargers - QB Justin Herbert (Banged Up), WR Ladd McConkey (Left Game), WR Brenen Thompson (Injured Inactive), OG Kayode Awosika (Injured Inactive), DT Justin Eboigbe (Left Game), CB Cam Hart (Left Game), TE David Njoku (Working back from I.R.), LB Denzel Perryman (Working back from I.R.)
L.A Rams - WR Puka Nacua (Left Game), OG Steve Avila (Left Game), CB Trent McDuffie (Injured Inactive), TE Terrance Ferguson (Working back from I.R.)
Miami - QB Malik Willis (Banged Up), RB Jaylen Wright (Injured Inactive), TE Will Kacmarek (Left Game)
Minnesota - TBD (Playing Tonight)
New England - RB Rhamondre Stevenson (Left Game), RB TreVeyon Henderson (Injured Inactive), WR A.J. Brown (Injured Inactive), OG Ben Brown (Left Game), OT Will Campbell (Left Game), CB Carlton Davis (Left Game), S Brenden Schooler (Left Game), OG Greg Van Roten (Working back from I.R.)
New Orleans - C Erik McCoy (Left Game)
New York Giants - RB Cam Skattebo (Injured Inactive)
New York Jets - WR Garrett Wilson (Injured Inactive), EDGE Joseph Ossai (Injured Inactive), CB Nahshon Wright (Injured Inactive)
Philadelphia (Bye Week) - WR DeVonta Smith (Injured Inactive), WR Dontayvion Wicks (Injured Inactive), WR Britain Covey (Injured Inactive), LB Zack Baun (Left Game), LB Jihaad Campbell (Injured Inactive), S Michael Carter II (Injured Inactive)
Pittsburgh (Returning from Bye) - WR Ben Skowronek, CB Brandin Echols
San Francisco - WR Mike Evans (Injured Inactive), WR Deebo Samuel (Injured Inactive), DT Gracen Halton (Left Game/Long Term), CB Renardo Green (Left Game), CB Deommodore Lenoir (Left Game), CB Nate Hobbs (Working back from I.R.)
Seattle - QB Sam Darnold (Injured Inactive), QB Drew Lock (Banged Up), WR Rashid Shaheed (Injured Inactive), OG Quenton Nelson (Injured Inactive), OT Charles Cross (Injured Inactive), EDGE Uchenna Nwosu (Injured Inactive), DT Leonard Williams (Injured Inactive), DT Brandon Pili (Injured Inactive)
Tampa Bay (Bye Week) - QB Baker Mayfield (Banged Up), EDGE YaYa Diaby (Injured Inactive), S Antoine Winfield (Left Game)
Tennessee (Returning from Bye) - RB Tyjae Spears, WR Carnell Tate, OG Peter Skoronski, OT JC Latham, CB Marcus Harris
Washington - WR Treylon Burks (Injured Inactive), C Lucas Patrick (Left Game)


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