The Hammer Drop Monday Week 2 NFL - NFL Takeaways & Injuries, Early Bets, CFB Power Ratings + Player Props

Suuma's Takeaways from Week 1
By: Suuma, NFL Originator 

Follow him on Twitter/X: https://x.com/suuma810 

1. The Jets are actually watchable

For the first time in a long time, the Jets have a real NFL quarterback, functional pass protection and a handful of playmakers in Garrett Wilson, Adonai Mitchell, Kenyon Sadiq and Breece Hall.

Don't get me wrong — it was just the Titans. But Tennessee has a solid group up front, and Geno Smith was touched exactly once all game. One hit. A 23% pressure rate. The pass protection was outstanding. At one point early in the fourth quarter, the Jets had outgained the Titans 323 to 84. That is total domination.

Take: The Titans offense might simply be bad, so I wouldn't put much stock in New York's defensive performance — the jury is still out there. But the Jets look like a sneaky over team going forward.

The market is already moving that way. Their Week 2 total against the Packers opened at 44.5 and is up to 45 depending on where you look.


2. Lamar Jackson and Declan Doyle are a match made in heaven

The Ravens lined up under center on 67% of their offensive snaps, a rate we have never seen in the Lamar Jackson era. Play action, bootlegs, keepers, a diverse run game with the Big Dog Derrick Henry leading the way — and on top of all that, the sheer playmaking ability Lamar brings to every snap.

And they did it while losing Zay Flowers and highly coveted rookie Ja'Kobi Lane over the course of the game.

Rest of the NFL: watch out.


3. The Bills quietly had the best performance of the day

And it wasn't close, all things considered. The Texans had a top-two defense last season and were projected to field a top-three unit again this year. The Bills went into Houston and took it to them in what was arguably the worst showing by a DeMeco Ryans defense since he took over in 2023.

The audacity with which Buffalo created explosive plays and threw all over the field was stunning. Their explosive play rate was 23.2% — the highest of any team in Week 1 as of Monday morning. We all know offensive performance is stickier than defensive performance, so in my opinion this game tells us far more about the Bills offense than it does about the Texans defense.

Flip side: Houston's offense wasn't anywhere near stellar and still had a shot at scoring 38.

Not great, Jerome.

Take: The Bills offense is back. DJ Moore and Dalton Kincaid already look like two very important additions. Kincaid played through a PCL injury all of last season and still ranked top three in yards per route run among qualifying receivers.


4. Dallas, we have a problem

Aside from the Tyrone Tracy fumble, the Giants offense put together one of the cleanest performances of any offense in Week 1. The Giants. Yeah, those Giants. Jaxson Dart and company posted a 69.7% dropback success rate. Let that sink in.

Matt Nagy and Dart attacked every bit of space in the Cowboys defense, and they did it aggressively. That's alarming for a unit that rolled out eight new starters and wanted to show a completely different face. It was worse than most of what Dallas put on tape last season — it only ended at 28 points because the Giants had just seven drives, against a
league average of roughly 10.4. And one of those seven was the final possession running
out the clock.

One honest caveat before anyone gets carried away: the Giants got some luck out of this. 

They put the ball on the ground four times and came away with three of those fumbles.

That's not a skill you can bank on week to week, and it flatters the drive numbers a bit.

Take: The Giants look genuinely improved on offense, mostly in the sense that their floor is much higher now: a more robust offensive line plus several playmakers who can get open, with Nabers back and Isaiah Likely added at tight end. I want to see them against a real defense before I put a range on them. The Cowboys, already without DeMarvion Overshown
and Malik Hooker, might be in deep trouble. Another sneaky over team going forward.


5. The Steelers offense is a disgrace

This offense is going to hang by a thread all season long, entirely dependent on a 42-year- old quarterback hitting low-probability throws he is attempting out of sheer arrogance.

Back-to-back deep fades to Roman Wilson and DK Metcalf on 3rd & 3 and 4th & 3 from the Atlanta 45, fourth quarter, up one score, against an opponent that couldn't move the ball — that ain't it, fellas.

Expect most Steelers games to look like this one: a stout performance from that defensive line and a tough watch on offense. We're already looking at a total of 42 for their Week 2 trip to New England.


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Rob and Clive's Early Leans for Week 2

CLE/TB over 40.5 -110
NYJ +4.5 -105 vs. GB
NYJ/GB under 44.5 105
NE/PIT under 42.5 -104
HOU -2.5 -118 vs. CIN
HOU/CIN under 47.5 -110
CAR -102 ML @ ATL

To watch their game by game analysis of Week 2 Click Here:

Follow them on Twitter/X: 
https://x.com/robpizzola 
https://x.com/CliveBixby41 


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Injuries We are Watching for Week 2
*Note for teams returning from bye, the list is made up of the injuries they had going into the bye week.

Arizona - OG Isaiah Adams (Injured Inactive), CB Garrett Williams (Injured Inactive), S Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (Injured Inactive)
Atlanta - QB Tua Tagovailoa (Injured Inactive), QB Michael Penix Jr. (Injured Inactive), OG Chris Lindstrom (Left Game), DT Da'Shawn Hand (Left Game), CB Billy Bowman Jr. (Injured Inactive)
Baltimore - WR Zay Flowers (Left Game), WR Ja'Kobe Lane (Left Game/Out Weeks), DT Nnamdi Madubuike (Injured Inactive), LB Teddye Buchanan (Injured Inactive), CB T.J. Tampa (Left Game)
Buffalo - DT T.J. Sanders (Injured Inactive)
Carolina - EDGE Pat Jones II (Injured Inactive)
Chicago - QB Tyson Bagent (Injured Inactive), OT Ozzy Trapilo (Injured Inactive), CB Tyrique Stevenson (Left Game), S Xavier Woods (Injured Inactive)
Cincinnati - EDGE Shemar Stewart (Injured Inactive)
Cleveland - RB Dylan Sampson (Left Game), OG Teven Jenkins (Injured Inactive)
Dallas - LB DeMarvion Overshown (Left Game), S Malik Hooker (Left Game)
Denver - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Detroit - OG Christian Mahogany (Left Game), S Christian Izien (Injured Inactive)
Green Bay - OG Aaron Banks (Injured Inactive), DT Warren Brinson (Injured Inactive)
Houston - LB Henry To'oTo'o (Left Game), LB Jake Hummel (Left Game)
Indianapolis - Nothing of Note 
Jacksonville - Nothing of Note 
Kansas City - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Las Vegas - TE Brock Bowers (Injured Inactive)
L.A Chargers - WR Ladd McConkey (Left Game), WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith (Left Game), CB Elijah Molden (Left Game)
L.A Rams - TE Davis Allen (Left Game), DT Aaron Donald (Not activated yet), LB Nate Landman (Left Game), S Kam Curl (Left Game)
Miami - S Kyle Louis (Left Game)
Minnesota - QB Kyler Murray (Left Game)
New England - RB TreVeyon Henderson (Injured Inactive)
New Orleans - RB Alvin Kamara (Injured Inactive), TE Oscar Delp (Injured Inactive), EDGE Cameron Jordan (Injured Inactive)
New York Giants - Nothing of Note 
New York Jets - WR Omar Cooper Jr. (Left Game), EDGE Joseph Ossai (Injured Inactive), CB D'Angelo Ponds (Injured Inactive), S Minkah Fitzpatrick (Left Game)
Philadelphia - EDGE Jonathan Greenard (Injured Inactive)
Pittsburgh - CB Joey Porter Jr. (Injured Inactive)
San Francisco - WR De'Zhaun Stribling (Left Game/Out a while), TE Jake Tonges (Left Game)
Seattle - QB Sam Darnold (Left Game), WR Tory Horton (Injured Inactive), S Nick Emmanwori (Injured Inactive), S Ty Okada (Injured Inactive)
Tampa Bay - RB Sean Tucker (Injured Inactive), WR Jalen McMillan (Injured Inactive), CB Jacob Parrish (Left Game)
Tennessee - LB Cedric Gray (Injured Inactive)
Washington - TE Chig Okonkwo (Left Game), LB Frankie Luvu (Left Game), S Tyler Owens (Left Game)


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Player Prop from Hitman

Kenneth Walker over 15.5 rush attempts -138

Expecting the Chiefs to trend towards a run heavier approach early in the year, and Walker’s usage to increase from Seattle to Kansas City

Follow himon Twitter/X: https://x.com/Hitman428 


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CFB Risers & Fallers
By: Brad Powers, Co-Host of Hit The Books 

Followhim on Twitter/X: https://x.com/BradPowers7 

Biggest Risers since start of season.

Massachusetts +9 points
The Minutemen pulled off the biggest stunner of the CFB so season so far when they upset Rutgers 37-21 as 29.5-point underdogs in Week 1. There was nothing fluky about the game as they out-rushed the Scarlet Knights 200-27. Equally as impressive is them covering as a 23.5-point favorite last week vs Sacred Heart. That was their biggest favorite role ever. UMass entered the season having lost 16 straight games. Now my power ratings are calling for 7 wins. Keep in mind, they've never won more than 4 games in a season since joining the FBS almost 15 years ago.

North Texas +6 points
Coming into the season, I downgraded North Texas' power rating more than any team in the country (-17 points!). They were coming off an historic 12-win season, had a new coach and ZERO returning starters. Despite a 52-16 loss to defending national champ Indiana in the opener, they actually out-gained the Hoosiers! Last week as a 3-point home underdog, they destroyed UNLV 44-6. Their win total was 5.5 coming into the season, now my power ratings are calling for 7.5 wins.

Mississippi State +5.5 points
Get ready to learn the name Kamario Taylor. He's the Mississippi State quarterback and maybe the most talented QB prospect in the country. 6-4 230. Looks like Cam Newton but an even better thrower. He's the main reason the Bulldogs are 2-0 straight up and 2-0 ATS covering their games by a combined 44.5 points.

Biggest Fallers since start of season.

Rutgers -8 points
Rutgers is 0-2 straight up and 0-2 ATS failing to cover their two games by a combined 49.5 points. Their entire season can be summed up in last week's opening possession at Boston College. The Scarlet Knights had to take a timeout on 3rd and 1. After the timeout, they failed to convert. Then they went for it on 4th & 1 and failed a QB sneak setting up BC for a very short field and a quick 7-0 lead. Right now, my power ratings have them favored in only one game (vs FCS Howard). This looks like the final season for head coach Greg Schiano.

Clemson -7 points
Clemson was destroyed by LSU in the opener 51-10. It was worse than the final as they got out-gained by an incredible 499 yards. How did they follow up that putrid performance? How about only leading Georgia Southern 16-7 late in the fourth quarter. Now their starting QB Christopher Vizzina is out for this week's game. The Tigers will have a to start a true freshman vs a Bill Belichick defense. 

Oregon -5.5 points
Maybe the most disappointing team in the country considering their lofty preseason expectations. The Ducks have failed to cover the spread by a combined 50 points! Last week they suffered a shocking upset loss to Oklahoma State 39-31. The box score wasn't as close to the final as the Ducks got out-gained by more than 250 yards. Dan Lanning's two coordinator hires seem to be underwhelming at best and Oregon is getting whipped at the line of scrimmage. Right now, they are +165 underdogs to make the playoffs after being a popular pick to win it all by many (including me).


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