The Hammer Drop Monday Week 4 NFL - NFL Takeaways & Injuries, Early Bets, CFB Power Ratings

Suuma's Takeaways from Week 3
By: Suuma, NFL Originator 

You can Follow Suuma on Twitter/X

1. Another DeMeco Ryans masterclass

Midway through the fourth quarter, the Texans trailed 16-7 and faced 4th & 4 at the Colts' 6-yard line. Ryans kicked the field goal to make it 16-10. Those four extra points a touchdown would have brought were exactly what Houston was missing in the end, as Indianapolis won 19-17 on a late game-winning field goal.

And it got worse. On the Colts' game-winning drive, Jonathan Taylor ran for 5 yards to the Houston 40 with 1:11 left, and Ryans had all three timeouts in his pocket. He didn't use the first one until 0:29 was on the clock, basically burning 30 seconds he robbed his own offense of for a potential game-winning drive. Indy was stopped on 3rd down, and by the time the Texans got the ball back, they had just 16 seconds and no timeouts left.

For as good a defensive coach as DeMeco Ryans is, his in-game management remains a major issue and a real ceiling on this team.

2. Misleading box scores of the week

The scoreboard tells you who won. It doesn't always tell you who played better. Each week we rebuild every game from its drives: how often a team's plays actually helped it (success rate, a play that leaves the offense better placed to score than before), how far its drives got, and how much of the scoring came from bounces that rarely repeat, like fumbles, turnovers and short fields handed over by the other side. The result is our True Score.

One caveat before we start: this is one model among many. Others weigh these things differently and will land somewhere else. None of this changes who won. It's just a different view on how things shook out.

3. Seahawks 31, Commanders 33 · True Score: SEA 30.6, WAS 22.8

Washington won, but Seattle was the better team for most of the afternoon. Half of Seattle's plays were successful; Washington managed that on fewer than one in three and converted only 3 of 13 third downs. The difference was turnovers. Seattle gave the ball away three times, Washington never, and those three giveaways turned straight into 21 Washington points: a touchdown after a fumble at the Seattle 21, another after an interception handed Washington a 43-yard short field, and a 50-yard pick-six. Seattle also marched 78 yards on one drive and was stopped on downs at the doorstep. Sam Darnold threw for 379 yards and four touchdowns and still lost. Turnovers count, but they are among the least repeatable things in football.

4. Raiders 35, Saints 27 · True Score: LV 27.8, NO 33.1

On the field, New Orleans was the more efficient team: 54% of its plays were successful to Las Vegas's 44%, and it converted 9 of 15 third downs. What sank the Saints was the ball hitting the turf. Their last four possessions all ended in turnovers, two of them strip-sacks of Tyler Shough. And when the ball came loose, it kept bouncing one way: of the six fumbles that stayed in bounds, the Raiders recovered five. Who ends up on a loose ball is close to a coin flip; over a season, teams recover about half. Las Vegas turned those mistakes into 13 points, including a three-play, four-yard touchdown drive after an interception return to the Saints' 8. New Orleans lost the fumble lottery more than the football game.

5. Bengals 27, Steelers 30 · True Score: CIN 31.8, PIT 28.2

A three-point loss that looked like a coin flip, and mostly was. Cincinnati was the more efficient offense: 55% successful plays to Pittsburgh's 48%, with Joe Burrow at 28 of 37 for 282 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. The margin came from two loose balls, and Pittsburgh recovered both. First, a muffed punt gave the Steelers the ball at the Cincinnati 16. They lost four yards and kicked a field goal anyway: three points for no offense at all. Then, trailing by three with 53 seconds left, Burrow was strip-sacked in Pittsburgh territory, and the Steelers fell on that one too. To be fair, Cincinnati got a gift of its own: a touchdown drive set up by an Aaron Rodgers interception. Still, play this one again and the Bengals are the likelier winner.

One concern on the other side of the ball, though: through the first two weeks, Cincinnati's defensive line was able to mask the issues on the back end. On Sunday, the Bengals lost the battle in the trenches and got punished heavily by Rodgers, with receivers running wide open at times.

6. The Raiders are fun again, but...

Brock Bowers is back, and head coach Klint Kubiak is cooking. In his first game since knee cleanup surgery, Bowers lined up as an X receiver on 45 snaps and started in-line on only 9. Kubiak essentially deployed him as a wideout, and he was close to unguardable on Sunday: 10 catches, 116 yards and a score.

That usage is tough to scheme against. You almost have to match him with a defensive back because linebackers won't have a shot in coverage, which should — in theory — open things up for the run game against lighter personnel.

I say in theory, because the Silver and Black aren't posting great efficiency numbers on the ground. Over the first two weeks, their run game ranked 26th in success rate and 22nd in DVOA against six-man boxes, and 23rd and 27th against nickel personnel. Against the Saints, they had a 29% success rate on runs, 26% on early downs. Ashton Jeanty piled up a whopping 56 yards on 19 carries.

Overall, Las Vegas ranks 15th in success rate: 6th passing, 24th rushing. Kubiak has been pressing the right buttons, and the offense has been creating enough big plays. Maybe Bowers can serve as an extension of the run game and consistently prop up that success rate, because at some point, the ground game is going to become a problem.

7. Cam Ward, what are we doing?

Yes, I lost Titans +3.5 on Sunday with great CLV — in crazy fashion. On the potential gamewinning drive, Cam Ward threw an abysmal and completely unnecessary interception from the Giants' 7-yard line. It was just dumb. First down, 24 seconds to go, timeouts in hand. He could have run it inside the 5 to shorten the next down. An inexcusable play.

On top of that, Robert Saleh's poor in-game management from his Jets days has followed him to Tennessee. This was a bad-weather game with strong winds and gusts. Down 6-0 with 46 seconds left in the first half, Saleh chose a 59-yard field goal attempt over pinning the Giants deep. Joe Slye missed, and New York quickly marched 30 yards for a 39-yard
field goal to make it 9-0.

The Titans are a poorly coached football team with a second-year quarterback who isn't
showing any signs of improvement yet.


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Rob and Clive's Early Leans for Week 4

LAC/SEA u44.5 -114
MIN/MIA u41.5 -105
ARI +100 ML
ARI/NYG o43.5 -110

For a detailed breakdown of every Week 4 game watch The Sunday Reset


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Injuries We are Watching for Week 4
*Note for teams returning from bye, the list is made up of the injuries they had going into the bye week.

Arizona - S Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (Injured Inactive)
Atlanta - EDGE Samson Ebukam (Injured Inactive)
Baltimore - OT Ronnie Stanley (Injured Inactive), C Ethan Pocic (Left Game), C Jovaughn Gwyn (Left Game)
Buffalo - DT T.J. Sanders (Injured Inactive), CB Christian Benford (Left Game)
Carolina - WR Jalen Coker (Left Game), WR Xavier Legette (Injured Inactive), LB Devin Lloyd (Injured Inactive), CB Jaycee Horn (Left Game), CB Mike Jackson (Left Game), S Nick Scott (Injured Inactive)
Chicago - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Cincinnati - WR Colbie Young (Left Game), DT B.J. Hill (Injured Inactive), CB Jalen Davis (Left Game), S Bryan Cook (Left Game)
Cleveland - OG Teven Jenkins (Injured Inactive), CB Tyson Campbell (Injured Inactive)
Dallas - LB DeMarvion Overshown (Injured Inactive), CB Cobie Durant (Injured Inactive), CB Shavon Revel Jr. (Left Game), S Malik Hooker (Injured Inactive), S Jalen Thompson (Left Game)
Denver - WR Marvin Mims Jr. (Injured Inactive)
Detroit - OG Ben Bartch (Injured Inactive)
Green Bay - OG Aaron Banks (Injured Inactive), DT Warren Brinson (Injured Inactive), DT Anthony Campbell (Injured Inactive), LB Edgerrin Cooper (Left Game)
Houston - WR Nico Collins (Injured Inactive), OG Ed Ingram (Injured Inactive), EDGE Jadeveon Clowney (Injured Inactive), DT Mario Edwards Jr. (Left Game)
Indianapolis - WR Aston Dulin (Injured Inactive)
Jacksonville - Nothing of Note
Kansas City - OT Josh Simmons (Injured Inactive), S Chamarri Conner (Injured Inactive)
Las Vegas - WR Jack Bech (Heading to I.R), OG Jackson Powers-Johnson (Left Game), S Treydan Stukes (Injured Inactive)
L.A Chargers - WR Brenen Thompson (Injured Inactive), TE Charlie Kolar (Injured Inactive), OG Kayode Awosika (Injured Inactive), DT Dalvin Tomlinson (Injured Inactive), CB Donte Jackson (Left Game), CB/S Elijah Molden (Injured Inactive)
L.A Rams - WR Puka Nacua (Injured Inactive), TE Terrance Ferguson (Left Game), CB Jaylen Watson (Left Game), S Kamren Kinchens (Injured Inactive)
Miami - RB De'Von Achane (Left Game/Season Over), RB Jaylen Wright (Injured Inactive), WR Caleb Douglas (Injured Inactive), EDGE Robert Beal Jr. (Injured Inactive)
Minnesota - WR Justin Jefferson (Left Game), TE Josh Oliver (Left Game)
New England - TE Eli Raridon (Injured Inactive), OG Greg Van Roten (Left Game), EDGE Dre'Mont Jones (Injured Inactive), DT Christian Barmore (Left Game), S Craig Woodson (Injured Inactive)
New Orleans - RB Travis Etienne (Left Game), EDGE Anfernee Jennings (Left Game), DT Christen Miller (Injured Inactive), LB Pete Warner (Left Game), CB Martin Emerson Jr. (Injured Inactive)
New York Giants - EDGE Brian Burns (Left Game/Season likely over), CB Deonte Banks (Injured Inactive), S Tyler Nubin (Injured Inactive)
New York Jets - RB Breece Hall (Left Game), WR Adonai Mitchell (Injured Inactive), TE Mason Taylor (Injured Inactive), OG Dylan Parham (Left Game), S Minkah Fitzpatrick (Injured Inactive)
Philadelphia - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Pittsburgh - RB Rico Dowdle (Injured Inactive), CB Joey Porter Jr. (Injured Inactive), CB Brandin Echols (Left Game)
San Francisco - WR Mike Evans (Left Game), OT Trent Williams (Left Game), EDGE Nick Bosa (Injured Inactive), EDGE Romello Height (Injured Inactive), DT James Thompson Jr. (Injured Inactive), LB Dre Greenlaw (Left Game)
Seattle - DT Brandon Pili (Injured Inactive), S Julian Love (Injured Inactive), S Ty Okada (Injured Inactive)
Tampa Bay - QB Baker Mayfield (Left Game/Out Weeks), WR Jalen McMillan (Left Game), EDGE Rueben Bain Jr. (Injured Inactive), LB Josiah Trotter (Injured Inactive)
Tennessee - OG Fernando Carmona (Left Game)
Washington - QB Jayden Daniels (Injured Inactive), TE Chig Okonkwo (Injured Inactive), OG Samuel Cosmi (Injured Inactive), OG Lucas Patrick (Left Game), LB Leo Chenal (Left Game/Season Over), LB Frankie Luvu (Injured Inactive), S Nick Cross (Injured Inactive)


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CFB Risers & Fallers
By: Brad Powers, Co-Host of Hit The Books 

You can Follow Brad Powers on Twitter/X

Biggest Upgrades from Last Week:

UCLA +3.0 points
UCLA covered the spread by 48.5-points on Saturday! The Bruins beat Maryland 54-3 as 2.5-point road favorites with a 475-181 yard edge. Even more amazing is UCLA did it in three quarters as it was scoreless after the first. Under new coach Bob Chesney, UCLA is 4-0 and they have covered their games by an average of 18.3 points per game. Before the season, UCLA was +2700 to make the playoffs at Fan Duel. They're down to +500.

Florida +2.5 points
Most of the public were surprised to see No. 21 Florida favored over No. 4 Mississippi last week. The Gators delivered on those expectations and then some in their 52-28 win. The Gators ran for 302 yards against a good Mississippi defensive front. Florida ranks No. 2 in the country averaging 53.5 points per game. They are now -150 to make the playoffs at Fan Duel.

Wake Forest +2.5 points
A week after putting up a solid fight vs Miami, Wake Forest pulled the outright upset over No. 16 Louisville as 11-point underdogs. There was nothing fluky as Wake had a 6.6-5.4 yards per play edge and out-rushed Louisville 177-75. Wake's season win totals the last two years have been 4.5 and 5.5. After shockingly winning 9 games last year, head coach Jake Dickert is working his magic again.

Biggest Downgrades from Last Week:

Maryland -3.5 points
Maryland was an embarrassment on Saturday losing 54-3 to UCLA as short home underdogs. Head coach Mike Locksley is all but fired at this point and it looked like Maryland quit in the second half. The market is already reacting this week as Maryland opened as 12.5-point underdogs at Nebraska and now are 14.5-point underdogs.

Texas A&M -2.5 points
Texas A&M lost 35-6 at LSU as 8-point underdogs. The box score was worse than the final as Texas A&M was out-gained 506-197. Quarterback Marcel Reed completed just 10 of 26 passes for 106 yards and an interception. One year after starting the season 11-0 and making the playoffs, my projections are calling for Texas A&M to finish 6-6!

Penn State -2.5 points
Penn State blew a 17-0 lead at home to Wisconsin on Saturday losing outright as 9.5-point favorites. It was deserved considering the Nittany Lions got out-gained 355-233 and lost despite a plus-2 turnover margin. Quarterback Rocco Becht completed only 12 of 29 passes for 114 yards and an interception. Penn State clearly missed star wide receiver Koby Howard who's out indefinitely due to injury.


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