The Hammer Drop Monday Week 7 NFL - NFL Takeaways & Injuries, Early Bets, CFB Power Ratings

Suuma's Takeaways from Week 6
By: Suuma, NFL Originator 

You can Follow Suuma on Twitter/X

Misleading scores of the week

True Score rebuilds each team's score from what its drives actually produced: field position, successful plays, turnovers forced and given. It never looks at the real points. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, the scoreboard is usually the one lying.

Last week, no game had the wrong winner by True Score. This week, five of 13 did: the Packers, Broncos, Saints, Texans and Cardinals all won games they didn't deserve to win. Since 2006, only 25 of 351 weeks have had five or more.

Bears 31, Falcons 23 · True Score: CHI 35.4, ATL 10.6

The biggest gap of the season so far (16.9 points), topping last week's 49ers-Seahawks game. An eight-point road win was really a blowout.

Caleb Williams picked Atlanta apart underneath: 30-of-36 for 305 yards, an average depth of target of just 3.6 yards and a completion rate 15 points above expectation. Chicago scored touchdowns on four of its five red-zone trips and led 31-7 late in the third quarter.

Atlanta's offense never got going before that. It had a 30% success rate, went 3-for-12 on third down and 0-for-3 on fourth down, and Michael Penix was sacked five times on his way to −0.32 EPA per play. The Falcons' last 16 points came on two touchdowns with two-point conversions, both scored after their win probability had dropped to 0–3%.

Chargers 6, Chiefs 22 · True Score: LAC 3.7, KC 32.7

Last week we called the Chargers the worst offense in football. Sunday didn't change that.

-Justin Herbert finished at −0.28 EPA per play, with a completion rate 10 points below expectation and four sacks.
-The offense had a 27% success rate and averaged 3.9 yards per play.
-It reached the Kansas City 1 and settled for a field goal, and turned it over on downs three times.

Kansas City won by 16, but True Score says it should have been 29. The Chiefs averaged 7.2 yards per play with 16 explosive plays and a 56% success rate on dropbacks, and still left points on the field: an interception at the Chargers' 2, a turnover on downs at the 1 and a missed field goal.

Cowboys 13, Packers 23 · True Score: DAL 20.1, GB 18.7 — wrong winner

True Score doesn't know that Matthew Golden dropped two touchdown passes and Christian Watson another, and those three drops alone took eight points off the board for Green Bay. Count them, and this is the comfortable win it looked like: the Packers led 17-0 at halftime and 23-7 in the fourth quarter, and it never felt like Dallas was about to win.

Without them, the numbers lean Dallas, because of what the Cowboys did on the way to the end zone and then gave away. Dallas averaged 1.96 Drive Quality per drive to Green Bay's 1.55, but wasted four drives in Packers territory:

-an interception at the Green Bay 17,
-another interception at the 28,
-a turnover on downs at the 14,
-another turnover on downs at midfield.

The Dallas defense was even better than the scoreline suggests. On early downs, Green Bay had a 27% success rate and −0.37 EPA per play, the lowest success rate of any offense this week. And that came from a unit that entered the week 32nd in early-down EPA allowed. Joey Porter Jr. has been a big addition.

The Packers won this game on third down, where they went 11-for-18 (61%); Dallas went 5-for-13 (38%). That gap decided it, and it's the kind of split that rarely holds up week to week. Dak Prescott threw 54 times for 258 yards and two interceptions, and the run game averaged 2.1 yards per carry, so the Cowboys' offense wasn't good either.

Put it this way: on what happened, Dallas was a little better. On what should have happened, Green Bay was clearly better.

Seahawks 14, Broncos 17 (OT) · True Score: SEA 17.5, DEN 11.7 — wrong winner

Last week we said Denver's offense is limited by its quarterback. Thursday night proved the point again. Bo Nix completed 17 of 27 passes for 107 yards with an average depth of target of 4.0, and the Broncos averaged 2.9 yards per play with a 27% success rate on dropbacks.

Both Denver touchdowns came on its first two real drives, of 74 and 79 yards. After that came seven straight punts, and the winning field goal in overtime followed a Sam Darnold interception that handed Denver the ball at the Seattle 43.

Seattle outgained Denver by 140 yards and ran 80 plays to 56. It lost because of the same problems as last week: three giveaways (one of them in overtime), a missed field goal and five sacks of Darnold

Quick hits

-Saints 34, Giants 27 — wrong winner (True Score NYG 28.2–27.5). New York averaged 6.5 yards per play to New Orleans' 4.5 and gave the ball away four times. One interception set up a 21-yard Saints touchdown drive. Tyler Shough completed 16 of 30 for 144 yards with a completion rate 17 points below expectation — and still threw three touchdowns.

-Steelers 26, Buccaneers 19 was further apart than seven points (True Score 21.4–10.8). Tampa Bay had a 30% success rate and produced 0.72 Drive Quality per drive, the second-lowest of the week.

-Texans 34, Jaguars 31 and Cardinals 18, Rams 16 are the other two wrong winners. Both came down to the final two minutes, and both were decided by a head coach's clock decision.

Two wrong winners, two late-game blunders

Sean McVay scores too early
The Rams trailed 15-9 and got the ball at their own 14 with 2:48 left and two timeouts. Matthew Stafford moved them 80 yards in nine plays, and on 2nd-and-3 from the Arizona 6 he hit Colby Parkinson for the touchdown. Officials ruled him down at the 1, replay reversed it: 16-15 Rams with 47 seconds left.

That's the problem. The Rams had three downs to cover six yards, both of their timeouts still unused, and the clock on their side. They scored with almost a minute left anyway. Arizona had no timeouts, needed about 30 yards for a field goal, and per nflfastR's win probability model still had a 38% chance at the kickoff.

The Cardinals needed one play. Jacoby Brissett found Jalen Brooks for 21 yards, Jaylen Wallace tacked on a 15-yard unnecessary roughness penalty, and Arizona was at the Rams' 29. Three runs later, Chad Ryland hit a 43-yarder with three seconds left, his sixth field goal in six tries.

Those six field goals are also why True Score had the Rams as the better team (20.6–18.4): Arizona reached the red zone five times and came away without a touchdown. McVay's clock management left the door open; Wallace's penalty held it open.

Liam Coen ties it too early
Jacksonville trailed 31-28 when Travis Hunter intercepted CJ Stroud in the end zone with 3:53 left. The Jaguars drove into Houston territory, and after two incompletions and a six-yard catch, they faced 4th-and-4 at the Houston 42 at the two-minute warning with all three timeouts left. Cam Little drilled a 60-yard field goal to tie it.

The kick was great. The decision wasn't. The nfl4th decision model rated going for it at 34% win probability and the field goal at 27%. A tie with 1:55 left hands the ball back to an offense that had already scored 31 points, with all three of its timeouts. Right after the kickoff, Houston was a 56% favorite in a tied game.

The Texans needed 36 yards. Jacksonville burned all three timeouts on defense, Houston simply ran the clock from 0:47 to 0:03, and Ka'imi Fairbairn hit from 49. Over the course of the game, nfl4th charges the Jaguars with 8.6 percentage points of win probability lost on fourth downs — 7.0 of them on this one kick.

As with the Rams, the box score backs the loser. Jacksonville had the better success rate (52% to 48%), more Drive Quality per drive (3.05 to 2.94) and the higher True Score (30.8–29.2).

Colts: the season is all but over

Sunday's 26-20 home loss to Tennessee dropped Indianapolis to 2-4. The Titans came in ranked 32nd in points per drive, and the Colts still handed them three giveaways, a return touchdown and a failed fourth down.

Since the playoff field grew to 14 teams in 2020, 7 of 36 teams that started 2-4 made the postseason, about one in five. Nothing in the Colts' numbers suggests they'll be one of them.

Offense
-21st in EPA per play (−0.06) and 19th in success rate.
-The run game is a genuine strength: 3rd in EPA per carry.
-Everything else falls on Daniel Jones, who ranks 26th of 34 quarterbacks in EPA per play (−0.09), with 5.9 yards per attempt, six interceptions, 15 sacks and a completion rate 3.4 points below expectation. The passing game ranks 28th in EPA per dropback.

Defense
-25th in EPA per play allowed and 25th in points per drive allowed.
-28th against the run, 22nd against the pass, 22nd in sack rate.

Turnovers
Eleven giveaways against three takeaways — a −8 margin that ranks dead last in the league. In five of six games, the Colts gave the ball away more often than they took it. 

Their True Score differential ranks 22nd, so this isn't a good team that's been unlucky. It's a below-average team on both sides of the ball that also loses the turnover battle every single week.


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Rob and Clive's Early Leans for Week 7

CHI ML -148
MIN/IND u42.5 -114
DEN/ARI u43.5 -106
KC/SEA u42.5 -105

For a detailed breakdown of every Week 7 game watch The Sunday Reset


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Injuries We are Watching for Week 7
*Note for teams returning from bye, the list is made up of the injuries they had going into the bye week.

Arizona - RB Jeremiyah Love (Injured Inactive), S Andrew Wingard (Injured Inactive), S Wydett Williams (Injured Inactive)
Atlanta - LB Divine Deablo (Left Game), LB Kendal Daniels (Left Game), CB C.J. Henderson (Injured Inactive), CB Billy Bowman Jr. (Left Game)
Baltimore - QB Lamar Jackson (Injured Inactive), WR Rashod Bateman (Left Game), C Cam Jurgens (Injured Inactive), OG Andrew Vorhees (Injured Inactive), DT Broderick Washington (Injured Inactive)
Buffalo (Bye Week) - WR DJ Moore (Injured Inactive), DT Ed Oliver (Injured Inactive)
Carolina - OT Monroe Freeling (Injured Inactive)
Chicago - RB Kyle Monangai (Injured Inactive), OG Jonah Jackson (Left Game), EDGE Montez Sweat (Suspended), LB T.J. Edwards (Injured Inactive), CB Tyrique Stevenson (Injured Inactive)
Cincinnati (Returning from Bye) - WR Colbie Young, S Kyle Dugger
Cleveland - RB Quinshon Judkins (Injured Inactive), OG Teven Jenkins (Injured Inactive), DT Mason Graham (Injured Inactive), DT Michael Hall Jr. (Injured Inactive), S Grant Delpit (Left Game), RB Dylan Sampson (Working back from I.R.)
Dallas - WR KaVontae Turpin (Left Game), LB DeMarvion Overshown (Injured Inactive), LB Dee Winters (Left Game), CB Cobie Durant (Injured Inactive)
Denver - RB Tyler Badie (Left Game), CB Patrick Surtain II (Injured Inactive), S Talanoa Hufanga (Injured Inactive)
Detroit (Returning from Bye) - OG Ben Bartch, CB Rock Ya-Sin, C Cade Mays (Working back from I.R.), S Brian Branch (Working back from PUP)
Green Bay - OG Aaron Banks (Injured Inactive), CB Benjamin St-Juste (Injured Inactive), CB Brandon Cisse (Left Game)
Houston - RB David Montgomery (Injured Inactive), OT Braden Smith (Ramping up), S Jalen Pitre (Injured Inactive), S Reed Blankenship (Left Game), WR Tank Dell (Working back from PUP)
Indianapolis - WR Ashton Dulin (Injured Inactive), TE Tyler Warren (Injured Inactive), LB Jaylon Carlies (Injured Inactive), CB Sauce Gardner (Left Game)
Jacksonville (Bye Week) - CB Montaric Brown (Injured Inactive), CB Jaylon Jones (Injured Inactive), S Antonio Johnson (Left Game)
Kansas City - WR Rashee Rice (Injured Inactive), OT Josh Simmons (Injured Inactive), OT Jaylon Moore (Left Game)
Las Vegas - DT Tonka Hemingway (Injured Inactive), WR Dont'e Thornton Jr. (Working back from I.R.)
L.A Chargers (Bye Week) - WR Ladd McConkey (Left Game), WR Tre' Harris (Injured Inactive), OG Kayode Awosika (Injured Inactive), OT Joe Alt (Injured Inactive), EDGE Bud Dupree (Injured Inactive), CB Donte Jackson (Injured Inactive), S Derwin James Jr. (Injured Inactive)
L.A Rams - WR Davante Adams (Left Game), CB Trent McDuffie (Injured Inactive)
Miami (Returning from Bye) - WR Caleb Douglas, OG Jonah Savaiinaea, EDGE Robert Beal Jr., CB JuJu Brents
Minnesota (Returning from Bye) - WR Jordan Addison, TE T.J. Hockenson, OT Christian Darrisaw
New England - WR Romeo Doubs (Left Game), OG Alijah Vera-Tucker (Left Game), C/OG Ben Brown (Left Game), OT Morgan Moses (Left Game), CB Carlton Davis (Injured Inactive), CB Karon Prunty (Injured Inactive), CB Channing Canada (Injured Inactive)
New Orleans - OG Cesar Ruiz (Left Game), EDGE Anfernee Jennings (Injured Inactive), DT Nathan Sheperd (Injured Inactive), LB Kaden Elliss (Injured Inactive)
New York Giants - WR Darnell Mooney (Left Game), TE Theo Johnson (Injured Inactive), OT Jermaine Eluemunor (Injured Inactive), LB Tremaine Edmunds (Injured Inactive), CB Greg Newsome II (Left Game), CB Colton Hood (Injured Inactive), S Tyler Nubin (Injured Inactive)
New York Jets - RB Breece Hall (Injured Inactive), WR Adonai Mitchell (Injured Inactive), OG Dylan Parham (Injured Inactive), EDGE Joseph Ossai (Injured Inactive)
Philadelphia - RB Saquon Barkley (Injured Inactive), RB Carson Steele (Left Game), EDGE Nolan Smith (Left Game), EDGE Jalyx Hunt (Injured Inactive), EDGE A.J. Epenesa (Injured Inactive), DT Jordan Davis (Left Game), S Michael Carter II (Injured Inactive), TE Eli Stowers (Working back from I.R.), OG Landon Dickerson (Working back from I.R.)
Pittsburgh - WR Ben Skowronek (Injured Inactive), S DeShon Elliott (Working back from I.R.)
San Francisco - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Seattle - TE Elijah Arroyo (Left Game), LB Drake Thomas (Injured Inactive), LB Chazz Surratt (Injured Inactive), RB Zach Charbonnet (Working back from PUP)
Tampa Bay - QB Baker Mayfield (Injured Inactive), RB Sean Tucker (Injured Inactive), CB Benjamin Morrison (Injured Inactive), S Antoine Winfield Jr. (Injured Inactive)
Tennessee - S Kevin Winston Jr. (Injured Inactive), Tony Adams (Left Game)
Washington (Bye Week) - TBD (Playing Tonight)


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CFB Risers & Fallers
By: Brad Powers, Co-Host of Hit The Books 

You can Follow Brad Powers on Twitter/X

Biggest Upgrades from Last Week:

Charlotte +3.0 points
Charlotte took a lot of money in the market late in the week. On Friday, they were 21-point underdogs at Temple. They closed 17-point underdogs. That's noticeable considering Charlotte entered the game 0-6 straight up and there was not a QB injury for Temple. Charlotte would reward those backers by pulling an outright upset 38-31. This should prevent them from waving the "white flag" on the season.

BYU +2.5 points
In the biggest home game in school history, BYU upset No. 2 Notre Dame 28-24 as 10.5-point underdogs. Regardless of the late-game officiating, BYU was the better team most of the night and deserved to win. BYU had a 5.4-4.8 yards per play advantage and were +7.2% in net success rate. QB Bear Bachmeier was the star with a 92.0 QBR as he became the first player in 30 years to have a passing TD, rushing TD and a receiving TD vs a AP Top 10 team.

Auburn +2.5 points
In a weekend filled with upsets, Auburn pulled the biggest shocker upsetting No. 1 Georgia 27-24 as 19-point underdogs. This would have been a bigger upgrade but it was a misleading final. Auburn was -1.9 in yards per play margin and benefitted from a plus-3 turnover margin. Auburn trailed 14-0 early. Entering the game, unranked teams trailing the AP No. 1 team by at least 14 points had lost 195 consecutive games.

Biggest Downgrades from Last Week:
*Note: I downgraded Ohio State and Mississippi State the most in my power ratings this week but that was due to QB injuries. These downgrades are performance-based.

Texas -3.0 points
Texas suffered their second consecutive upset loss falling 27-24 to Florida as 13-point favorites. Unlike last week's misleading final against Oklahoma, this loss was deserved. Florida controlled the line of scrimmage with their backup QB and held the ball for more than 38 minutes. Texas QB Arch Manning only had a 20.6 QBR and there are now legit discussions in benching him.

Sacramento State -2.5 points
It's become clear that Sacramento State was not ready to make the jump to the FBS. Last week, they lost 48-7 at home to Ohio as 18-point underdogs. Despite playing in the weakest conference in the FBS, Sacramento State is getting out-scored by 27 points per game in MAC play. They are dead last in my power ratings. I'm having trouble downgrading them enough each week to stay in line with the market.

Arizona State -2.5 points
For the second time in three weeks, Arizona State lost a Big 12 game by at least four touchdowns. This time the Sun Devils lost 53-25 at Texas Tech as 17-point underdogs. It was worse than the final as Arizona State trailed 43-10 at halftime and incredibly gave up 404 yards of offense in the opening half. The market also faded them throughout the week as they opened 12.5-point underdogs on the Fan Duel Sunday openers.


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