The Hammer Drop Monday Week 8 NFL - NFL Takeaways & Injuries, Early Bets, CFB Power Ratings

Suuma's Takeaways from Week 7
By: Suuma, NFL Originator 

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Misleading box scores of the week

The scoreboard tells you who won. It doesn't always tell you who played better. Each week we rebuild every game from its drives: how often a team's plays actually helped it (success rate, meaning a play that leaves the offense better placed to score than before), how far its drives got, and how much of the scoring came from bounces that rarely repeat, like turnovers, return touchdowns and short fields handed over by the other side. The result is our True Score.

One caveat before we start: this is one model among many. Others weigh these things differently and will land somewhere else. None of this changes who won. It's just a different view on how things shook out.

49ers 20, Falcons 29 · True Score: SF 29.7, ATL 23.6

San Francisco was the better team for most of the afternoon and still lost by nine. The 49ers were successful on 56% of their plays to Atlanta's 48% and outgained the Falcons 400 to 298. The difference was where the ball ended up.

Leading 14-9 in the second quarter, the Niners fumbled on a run at the Atlanta 29. Trailing 19-14 in the third, Brock Purdy was intercepted at the Atlanta 10. The Falcons went 90 yards the other way, helped by three San Francisco penalties including a 20-yard pass interference, and Drake London's touchdown made it 26-14. San Francisco fought back to 26-20 and got the ball near midfield with four minutes left. Purdy's third-down pass was picked off and returned to the 49ers' 19, and the field goal that followed ended it.

There were four fumbles in the game, and Atlanta recovered three of them, one of them its own. Who ends up with a loose ball is close to a coin flip, and over a season teams recover about half. On Sunday, Atlanta won that coin flip almost every time.

Packers 17, Lions 20 · True Score: GB 14.3, DET 26.2

Detroit won on a field goal with one second left, but the game never should have been that close. The Lions were successful on 53% of their plays to the Packers' 34%, and outgained Green Bay 416 to 324.

Twice Detroit reached the Green Bay 6 and came away with nothing. Jahmyr Gibbs fumbled there 30 seconds before halftime, and a fourth-and-5 pass fell incomplete in the third quarter. On the second snap of the second half, a botched snap gave Green Bay the ball at the Detroit 42. Five plays later, Jordan Love hit Josh Jacobs for a 25-yard touchdown, so 7 of the Packers' 17 points came from one fumbled exchange.

Green Bay wasted chances of its own: a missed 26-yard field goal, a turnover on downs at the Detroit 7 and a blocked kick late in the fourth. The real difference was how the two teams moved the ball. The Packers lived on a handful of long completions, while the Lions moved it methodically all day. The scoreboard says coin flip. The play-by-play says Detroit, comfortably.

Browns 27, Titans 24 · True Score: CLE 31.0, TEN 20.1

A game-winning field goal on the final snap makes this look like a toss-up, but it wasn't. Cleveland was successful on 56% of its plays to Tennessee's 40% and outgained the Titans 491 to 322. Deshaun Watson went 25 of 36 for 308 yards.

Tennessee led 14-0 after seven minutes, and half of that lead was a gift: an interception returned to the Cleveland 24 set up a three-play touchdown drive. After that, the Browns took over. They scored on five of their next eleven possessions, and a 43-yard field goal off the upright cost them three more. Each team turned the ball over twice, so turnovers didn't decide this one.

The Titans put together only three real drives all day. One was the opening touchdown, one was stopped on fourth down at the Cleveland 1, and the last was a late 63-yard march, kept alive by a fourth-and-8 conversion, that tied the game with a minute left. Cleveland then went 55 yards in 25 seconds to win it. On the drives, this was a double-digit game.

Colts 10, Vikings 16 · True Score: IND 16.7, MIN 13.3

This was the closest call of the four, and the kickers decided it. Indianapolis was successful on 44% of its plays to Minnesota's 37% and converted 8 of 15 third downs; the Vikings went 3 for 11.

What the Colts couldn't do was finish. They made one trip into the red zone all day, Daniel Jones was sacked four times, and Spencer Shrader missed field goals from 56 and 48 yards. The second miss came with 4:27 left, trailing 13-10, and would have tied the game. Minnesota's only touchdown was set up by a 35-yard Kyler Murray scramble on third-and-8, and Will Reichard's 52-yarder with 1:44 to go put the Vikings up six.

To be fair to Minnesota, Murray was the more productive passer. This was a genuine toss-up that our model tilts slightly toward Indianapolis, and the Colts missed the kicks that would have made that count. Last week we wrote that their season is all but over. At 2-5, nothing about Sunday changes that.

Miami's new offense? Mostly a new passing game

Miami came out of its bye looking like a different offense, at least for one week. Over the first five games, the Dolphins were successful on only 37% of their plays, 30th in the league. Against the Jets, that jumped to 50%. Their EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap moves a team toward or away from scoring) ranked 29th before the bye; on Sunday it was +0.28. That was Miami's best game of the season by a wide margin and the third-best offensive game in the league this week.

The easy story is a run-heavy makeover for Malik Willis, and the numbers don't support it. He had one designed run, a fourth-and-1 keeper, after averaging two per game before the bye. He scrambled five times, a bit more than his 3.4 per game, but Miami already had the league's highest scramble rate. What changed was what those scrambles produced. All five kept a drive alive or scored: conversions on third-and-9, third-and-13 and fourth-and-2, plus a 2-yard touchdown run.

The real change came in the passing game. On Willis's dropbacks, 61% of plays were successful, up from 39% before the bye. He threw short and quick, finishing 14 of 21 for 208 yards and two touchdowns, and Miami didn't turn the ball over once after eight giveaways in its first five games. Both touchdown passes went to rookie Caleb Douglas, who had missed Weeks 3 to 5 with an ankle injury. One of them was a 63-yard catch-and-run in the fourth quarter, and that single play accounts for a big share of the day's numbers.

This is one game, against a Jets defense that ranked eighth in EPA allowed coming in. Treat it as a lead worth watching, not a trend.

Seattle's defense: back at Super Bowl level

Seattle held Kansas City to three points on Sunday night, and the season numbers say it wasn't a fluke. Through seven games, opponents have been successful on just 36.5% of their plays against the Seahawks. Last year's championship defense allowed 39.6% over the regular season, the best mark in the league, and at this point a year ago it stood at 41.3%. Only Minnesota is lower this season, at 35.1%.

Seattle also ranks second in EPA allowed per play, again behind Minnesota and slightly better than where last year's unit finished. At this point last season, that defense ranked ninth, and 17th against the pass. Opponents have converted 28% of their third downs, and no defense has allowed fewer big plays.

These numbers haven't come against soft opposition, either. Seattle has already faced two of the league's top five offenses, San Francisco (2nd in EPA per play) and Kansas City (5th), plus New England (11th). Six of its seven opponents played worse against Seattle than they have against everyone else:

The only offense that fared better than usual was the Chargers — the worst in the league — and even they finished the day with negative EPA. On average, opponents were 0.17 EPA per play worse against Seattle than in their other games.

The caveats: seven games is a small sample, and Seattle is allowing slightly more points per game than last year (17.9 vs. 17.2). Much of that comes from Washington and San Francisco, who scored 33 and 32 after Seattle's own offense turned the ball over three and four times and handed them short fields. Both of those games showed up in this space earlier in the season. "Better than the champions" is a stretch for now. "Every bit as good" is fair.

A strange night for Patrick Mahomes

For Mahomes, it was one of the strangest nights of his career. Kansas City was successful on 36% of its plays, against 50% in its other games. Mahomes went 19 of 33 for 165 yards with no touchdowns and an interception, playing without two of his tackles, Josh Simmons and Jaylon Moore.

In 153 Mahomes starts, this was the first time Kansas City never reached the red zone. The closest the Chiefs got was the Seattle 27, and they missed field goals from 58 and 45 yards. The 213 total yards were the fewest in any game he played from start to finish. The 3 points tie the fewest of his career — and the other time, at Tennessee in 2021, he left before the end.

By efficiency, it was bad but not his worst: that distinction still belongs to last December against Houston, when he threw three interceptions.


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Rob and Clive's Early Leans for Week 8

LAR/LAC under 44.5 -106
PIT/CLE under 39.5 -110

For a detailed breakdown of every Week 8 game watch The Sunday Reset


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Injuries We are Watching for Week 8
*Note for teams returning from bye, the list is made up of the injuries they had going into the bye week.

Arizona - RB Jeremiyah Love (Injured Inactive), OG Jon Gaines II (Injured Inactive), DT Walter Nolen III (Injured Inactive), CB Max Melton (Injured Inactive), CB Kalen King (Left Game), S Andrew Wingard (Injured Inactive)
Atlanta - RB Brian Robinson (Injured Inactive), WR Olamide Zaccheaus (Injured Inactive), LB Divine Deablo (Injured Inactive), CB Avieon Terrell (Injured Inactive), CB Billy Bowman Jr. (Injured Inactive)
Baltimore - QB Lamar Jackson (Injured Inactive), OG Vega Ioane (Left Game), DT Broderick Washington (Injured Inactive), S Jaylinn Hawkins (Injured Inactive), CB T.J. Tampa (Working back from I.R.)
Buffalo (Returning from Bye) - WR DJ Moore, DT Ed Oliver, S C.J. Gardner-Johnson Suspended
Carolina - OT Taylor Moton (Left Game/Long Term), EDGE Jaelan Phillips (Injured Inactive)
Chicago - RB Kyle Monangai (Injured Inactive), LB T.J. Edwards (Injured Inactive), CB Malik Muhammad II (Left Game)
Cincinnati - TE Erick All (Left Game), S Kyle Dugger (Left Game)
Cleveland - OT Tytus Howard (Left Game), DT Michael Hall Jr. (Injured Inactive), CB Myles Harden (Left Game)
Dallas - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Denver - WR Jaylen Waddle (Left Game), DT Zach Allen (Left Game), CB Patrick Surtain II (Injured Inactive), S Talanoa Hufanga (Injured Inactive)
Detroit - CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (Left Game)
Green Bay - C Sean Rhyan (Left Game), C/OG Jacob Monk (Left Game), LB Zaire Franklin (Injured Inactive), CB Benjamin St-Juste (Injured Inactive)
Houston (Bye Week) - RB David Montgomery (Injured Inactive), WR Jaylin Noel (Left Game), S Jalen Pitre (Injured Inactive), S Reed Blankenship (Injured Inactive)
Indianapolis - TE Tyler Warren (Injured Inactive), LB CJ Allen (Injured Inactive), LB Bryce Boettcher (Injured Inactive), CB Sauce Gardner (Injured Inactive), CB Taylor-Britt (Left Game), CB Justin Walley (Left Game)
Jacksonville (Returning from Bye) - CB Montaric Brown, CB Jaylon Jones, S Antonio Johnson
Kansas City - WR Rashee Rice (Injured Inactive), OT Jaylon Moore (Injured Inactive)
Las Vegas - WR Dont'e Thornton Jr. (Working back from I.R.)
L.A Chargers (Returning from Bye) - WR Ladd McConkey, WR Tre' Harris, OG Kayode Awosika, OT Joe Alt, EDGE Bud Dupree, CB Donte Jackson, S Derwin James Jr.
L.A Rams - TE Colby Parkinson (Left Game Several Times), LB Nate Landman (Injured Inactive), CB Trent McDuffie (Injured Inactive)
Miami - RB Jaylen Wright (Left Game), EDGE Robert Beal Jr. (Injured Inactive)
Minnesota - RB Aaron Jones (Left Game)
New England - C/OG Ben Brown (Injured Inactive), DT Christian Barmore (Left Game), CB Carlton Davis III (Injured Inactive), CB Karon Prunty (Injured Inactive), CB Channing Canada (Injured Inactive)
New Orleans (Bye Week) - OG Cesar Ruiz DT (Injured Inactive), Nathan Shepherd (Sick Inactive), Justin Reid (Left Game), WR Jordyn Tyson (Working back from I.R.)
New York Giants (Bye Week) - RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. (Left Game), RB Cam Skattebo (Hurt in Overtime), TE Theo Johnson (Injured Inactive), CB Greg Newsome II (Injured Inactive), S Jevon Holland (Injured Inactive)
New York Jets - RB Breece Hall (Injured Inactive), OG Dylan Parham (Injured Inactive), EDGE Joseph Ossai (Injured Inactive), DT T'Vondre Sweat (Left Game)
Philadelphia - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Pittsburgh - WR Ben Skowronek (Injured Inactive), CB Brandin Echols (Injured Inactive)
San Francisco (Bye Week) - WR Mike Evans (Injured Inactive), WR Deebo Samuel (Injured Inactive), EDGE Nick Bosa (Injured Inactive)
Seattle - QB Drew Lock (Injured Inactive), RB Velus Jones Jr. (Left Game), WR Rashid Shaheed (Left Game), OT Charles Cross (Left Game), LB Drake Thomas (Injured Inactive), LB Chazz Surratt (Injured Inactive), RB Zach Charbonnet (Injured Inactive)
Tampa Bay - WR Emeka Egbuka (Injured Inactive), OT Luke Goedeke (Injured Inactive), S Antoine Winfield Jr. (Injured Inactive)
Tennessee - RB Tyjae Spears (Injured Inactive), WR Calvin Ridley (Injured Inactive)
Washington (Returning from Bye) - QB Marcus Mariota, WR Treylon Burks, EDGE Charles Omenihu, DT Javon Kinlaw


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Bet from Hitman

Tanner McKee u33.5 pass attempts

I’m expecting the Eagles to rely on more of a run heavy plan this week with Saquon Barkley back and a cluster of wide receiver injuries.

You can Follow Hitman on Twitter/X


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CFB Risers & Fallers
By: Brad Powers, Co-Host of Hit The Books 

You can Follow Brad Powers on Twitter/X

Biggest Upgrades from Last Week:

Delaware +3.5 points
Delaware saw the return of QB Nick Minicucci last week and promptly won 61-38 over Missouri State as 3-point favorites. Delaware had scored a combined 47 points in their previous three games combined without Minicucci, who was hurt early in the Virginia game. With Minicucci back in the lineup, look for Delaware to make a run at the CUSA championship game.

UL-Monroe +2.5 points
Pay attention to the market. Despite entering the game 0-6, ULM went from a 17.5-point underdog to a 13-point underdog at Troy last week. ULM would win the game outright 21-14. It was the 2nd straight week ULM took a lot of money late in the week once the limits opened up.

LSU +2.0 points
Last week LSU dominated Auburn 38-17 as 7-point road favorites. LSU led 31-10 at halftime and Auburn scored a TD in the final seconds to make the final more respectable. LSU had a 552-271 yard edge in the game. LSU is up to No. 4 in my power ratings and rank No. 2 nationally out-gaining their opponents by 252 yards per game. The Tigers host Alabama and Texas and will be favored in their final four games. I bet them -150 to make the playoffs this week.

Biggest Downgrades from Last Week:

Kansas State -3.0 points
NC State lost outright to Stanford 31-28 as 7.5-point favorites. There was nothing fluky about the game as the Wolf Pack got out-gained by nearly 100 yards and they scored a TD in the final 90 seconds to make the final respectable. After the game, NC State fired long-time head coach Dave Doeren, the winningest coach in school history. On Monday morning, there are “whispers” that some starters may sit out this week.

Michigan State -3.0 points
The first season under Pat Fitzgerald has not gone well. The Spartans have lost six straight games after starting 2-0. They are possibly the most banged up team in the country with multiple starters out. Last week they were down to a 3rd string freshman QB. Michigan State lost 28-10 to UCLA as 16.5-point underdogs. The box score was much worse as the Spartans 443-156.

Old Dominion -3.0 points
Old Dominion is just 1-7 ATS on the season failing to cover their games by 10.1 points per game. That’s the worst ATS record in the country. It doesn’t look like it will get better anytime soon. Last week, they lost to Louisiana Tech 26-0 as 13.5-point underdogs. Old Dominion was down to a 3rd string QB and the offense was limited to minus-13 yards rushing. One of the first bets I made this week was against Old Dominion (Marshall -2.5).


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