The Hammer Drop Monday Week 9 NFL - NFL Takeaways & Injuries, Early Bets, CFB Power Ratings

Suuma's Takeaways from Week 8
By: Suuma, NFL Originator 

You can Follow Suuma on Twitter/X

Misleading scores of the week

True Score rebuilds each team's score from what its drives actually produced: field position, successful plays, turnovers forced and given. It never looks at the real points. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, the scoreboard is usually the one lying.

After four wrong winners last week, only one game went to the wrong team this week: Denver over Kansas City. But several winners were a lot better than the final margin shows.

Panthers 19, Packers 27 · True Score: CAR 13.4, GB 33.2

The biggest gap of the week. Green Bay won by 8; True Score says it should have been 20.

The Packers gave the ball away three times:
-a fumble on the opening kickoff, which Carolina turned into a field goal,
-a Christian Watson fumble at the Carolina 42,
-a Jordan Love interception at the Carolina 2 in the fourth quarter, with Green Bay already at 97% win probability.

Apart from the turnovers, this one was lopsided. Love went 30-of-41 for 288 yards and three touchdowns, with a completion rate 11.7 points above expectation. Green Bay posted a 48% success rate to Carolina's 35% and scored touchdowns on all three of its red-zone trips. The Pack never even attempted a field goal.

Carolina's offense was Bryce Young throwing short: an average depth of target of 4.6 yards, six sacks, −0.14 EPA per play and two turnovers on downs. The Panthers' last touchdown came at 4% win probability.

Titans 36, Bengals 43 (OT) · True Score: TEN 29.2, CIN 46.0

Cincinnati gave the ball away four times and still won. True Score says it should have been comfortable.

Amani Hooker picked off Joe Burrow three times, twice inside the Tennessee 10. Another drive ended with a fourth-down sack from the 5, and Chase Brown fumbled at midfield in the fourth quarter.

Everything else Burrow threw worked. He went 38-of-48 for 462 yards and five touchdowns, with a completion rate 16.9 points above expectation, and Cincinnati had a 59% success rate. In overtime, he moved the Bengals 70 yards in five plays and finished it
himself with a 9-yard scramble.

Tennessee wasn't bad, either. Cam Ward — whom we called out back in Week 3 — posted +0.25 EPA per play, the offense as a whole +0.13. The Titans still needed four takeaways and a safety to make it a game.

Eagles 10, Commanders 27 · True Score: PHI 15.2, WAS 22.5

The right winner, but 17 points is too much. True Score has it at seven.

Both offenses had a 40% success rate. Washington did most of its scoring with the leg: four of five field goals, from 56, 39, 25 and 42 yards. Its only real touchdown drive was an 84-yarder in the second quarter. The last touchdown, from the 1, came after a Tanner McKee interception with Philadelphia's win probability already down to 3%.

Until 3:48 in the fourth quarter, Philadelphia was within one score. The Eagles lost a fumble on a sack at the Washington 44 and hit the upright on a 41-yard field goal. McKee threw 34 times for 212 yards and no touchdowns, and was sacked five times.

Chiefs 24, Broncos 28 · True Score: KC 26.2, DEN 21.7 — wrong winner

Kansas City led 24-13 in the fourth quarter at 92% win probability. Denver scored the last 15 points.

The Chiefs were the better offense: +0.16 EPA per play to Denver's +0.10, and a 49% success rate to 42%. Patrick Mahomes bounced back from last week's nightmare against Seattle, going 30-of-41 for 321 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. But Kansas City wasted its last two drives:

-Harrison Butker missed a 54-yard field goal wide right with 2:36 left.
-After a 32-yard Travis Kelce catch, the Chiefs had 1st-and-goal at the 4 and three snaps from the 1 — then took a sack on fourth down.

Denver went 2-for-11 on third down but 2-for-2 on fourth, including a 4th-and-goal touchdown followed by a two-point conversion. The winning drive needed only two plays: a 51-yard catch-and-run by Coleman, then his 5-yard touchdown. The 80-yard drive before that got a 15-yard boost from an unnecessary roughness penalty. Kansas City committed 11 penalties for 105 yards.

Quick hits

-Chargers 9, Rams 24 should have been worse (True Score 6.5–28.4). Both Justin Herbert interceptions were thrown toward Charlie Kolar and returned deep into Chargers territory, and the Rams turned them into 10 points. The Chargers settled for three field goals, reached the red zone once without a touchdown and had a 28% success rate.

-Colts 7, Jaguars 42 (True Score 12.2–40.6) was about the right score. Indianapolis lost three turnovers, one of them a 92-yard pick-six right before halftime, and Daniel Jones averaged −0.55 EPA per play. The Colts are now 2-6.

-Falcons 0, Buccaneers 16 (6.5–20.9) was an honest score. Michael Penix completed 8 of 24 with four interceptions, at −0.62 EPA per play.

-Patriots 24, Dolphins 19 (28.9–18.1): Drake Maye went 16-of-20 with a completion rate 14 points above expectation, and Miami's last touchdown came at 4% win probability.

Chargers: how bad is this offense, really?

We keep coming back to the Bolts, so let's put it in historical context. Through seven games, the Chargers average −0.23 EPA per play. The next-worst offense in the league, Indianapolis, sits at −0.11. Only once since 1999 has the worst offense been further behind the second-worst after seven games: the 2013 Jaguars.

Historically, it's very bad, but not record territory:

The typical league-worst offense after seven games sits at −0.20, so the Chargers are worse than your garden-variety worst offense. If they stayed at this level all season, it would be the 8th-worst full season since 1999, level with the 2023 Jets (−0.23). The 2012 Cardinals (−0.26) hold the bottom spot.

And it's not just one area dragging them down: −0.27 EPA per dropback, −0.26 EPA per designed run, 14.1 points per game.

Herbert is the bigger story. He's at −0.27 EPA per dropback, last among 35 quarterbacks with 100 or more dropbacks, with 23 sacks, 10 interceptions, five touchdown passes and a completion rate 4.2 points below expectation. Among 743 quarterback seasons since 1999 measured over their team's first seven games (minimum 180 dropbacks), that ranks 7th worst. Only JaMarcus Russell 2009 (−0.44), David Carr 2002 (−0.32), Andrew Walter 2006, Doug Pederson 1999, Donovan McNabb 2003 and Jake Plummer 1999 were worse. The worst full seasons since 1999 belong to Josh Rosen 2018 (−0.33), Nick Foles 2015 (−0.29) and Carr 2002 (−0.27).

What makes this so strange is that Herbert has never had a negative season. His worst full year was +0.03 in 2022. He's now 0.30 EPA per dropback below his own career low. The one hopeful comparison is McNabb 2003: he was even worse through seven games, and those Eagles reached the NFC Championship Game.

Cowboys: the worst defense in the league, but not last year's

Yes, it's the worst. Dallas allows +0.13 EPA per play, 32nd. Opponent-adjusted, it's also 32nd — with the biggest gap between 31st and 32nd anywhere in our defensive ratings — and last against both the pass and the run. The Cowboys allow 26.6 points per game and 2.60 points per drive (3rd worst).

Is it worse than last year? Not by the raw numbers. After eight games in 2025, Dallas allowed +0.18 EPA per play, the 4th-worst start of any defense since 1999. This year's start ranks 42nd. Last year's unit finished at +0.16, dead last in the league.

Two caveats. First, offenses as a whole are down this season (league EPA per play went from +0.015 to +0.007). Measured against the league and adjusted for opponents, Dallas is about as far behind everyone as it was a year ago: −1.9 standard deviations now, −1.8 at the same point in 2025.

Second, the recent trend is real but comes with an asterisk. Over the first five games, Dallas allowed +0.18 EPA per play; over the last three, +0.06. But those three came against Green Bay, Philadelphia (the league's 4th-worst offense) and Arizona. And Sunday showed how thin the ice is: Jacoby Brissett was at −0.35 EPA per dropback, then Gardner Minshew came in and went 17-of-23 with three touchdowns at +0.70. Arizona scored 33.

Jaguars: how much contender is in there?

More than the 5-2 record suggests.

+85 point differential, best in the league (+12.1 per game).
+0.205 net EPA per play, best in the league, ahead of San Francisco (+0.194).
True Score differential of +11.2 per game, second behind San Francisco.
Balanced: offense 3rd in EPA per play, defense 5th. Opponent-adjusted, they rank 4th overall (8th on offense, 5th on defense), behind the Rams, Seahawks and 49ers.

Trevor Lawrence is having the best season of his career by a wide margin: +0.28 EPA per dropback (5th of 34), 17 touchdowns to four interceptions and a completion rate 3.9 points above expectation. His previous best full season was +0.15 in 2022; last year, he was at +0.08.

The doubts:
-The schedule has been average (11th toughest by opponent rating). Against top-10 teams, Jacksonville is 1-2: a 35-6 win over New England, losses to Denver (13-20) and Houston (31-34).

-A +7 turnover margin (12 takeaways, 5 giveaways) is padding the point differential, and Sunday's 42-7 win over the Colts included that 92-yard pick-six.

-The Lawrence jump is the biggest question mark. More broadly, teams historically keep only about half of their net EPA from the first seven games over the rest of the season.

History still says that's a contender. Since 1999, 69 teams have had a net EPA of +0.18 or better after seven games. 91% made the playoffs, 42% reached the conference championship game, 23% made the Super Bowl and 7% won it. The league leader after seven games reached the conference title game 13 times in 27 seasons and the Super Bowl nine times. One of those conference finalists: the 2017 Jaguars, who were 4-3 at the time.

One more thing: +0.205 is the lowest mark for a league leader at this point since 2016. There's no dominant team this year — which is exactly why a team like Jacksonville has a real shot.


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Rob and Clive's Early Leans for Week 9

DET/MIA over 48.5 -118
DAL/MIA under 52.5 -110

For a detailed breakdown of every Week 9 game watch The Sunday Reset


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Injuries We are Watching for Week 9
*Note for teams returning from bye, the list is made up of the injuries they had going into the bye week.

Arizona - RB Jeremiyah Love (Left Game), RB Bam Knight (Left Game), WR Michael Wilson (Broken Ribs/Returned), WR Kendrick Bourne (Left Game), WR Reggie Virgil (Left Game), OG Jon Gaines II (Injured Inactive), OT Jayden Williams (Left Game), DT Walter Nolen III (Injured Inactive)
Atlanta - RB Brian Robinson Jr. (Injured Inactive), WR Zachariah Branch (Left Game), EDGE Samson Ebukam (Left Game), LB Divine Deablo (Injured Inactive), CB Billy Bowman Jr. (Injured Inactive)
Baltimore - QB Lamar Jackson (Left Game/Heading to I.R), QB Tyler Huntley (Left Game), OG Vega Ioane (Injured Inactive), CB Nate Wiggins (Left Game), S Jaylinn Hawkins (Injured Inactive)
Buffalo - WR DJ Moore (Left Game), WR Josh Palmer (Left Game), OT Spencer Brown (Injured Inactive), CB Dee Alford (Injured Inactive)
Carolina - OG Damien Lewis (Injured Inactive), OG Torricelli Simpkins III (Injured Inactive), OG Corey Bullock (Left Game), EDGE Jaelan Phillips (Injured Inactive), DT Bobby Brown III (Injured Inactive), CB Will Lee (Left Game)
Chicago - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Cincinnati - EDGE Cashius Howell (Left Game), EDGE Cedric Johnson (Left Game), CB DJ Turner II (Left Game), S Kyle Dugger (Injured Inactive)
Cleveland - DT Maliek Collins (Left Game)
Dallas - WR KaVontae Turpin (Injured Inactive), TE Jake Ferguson (Left Game), TE Luke Schoonmaker (Injured Inactive), LB Dee Winters (Injured Inactive), S Caleb Downs (Left Game)
Denver - CB Kris Abrams-Draine (Left Game), S Talanoa Hufanga (Injured Inactive), S Brandon Jones (Left Game)
Detroit - C Cade Mays (Left Game), EDGE D.J. Wonnum (Left Game), LB Jack Campbell (Left Game), CB D.J. Reed (Left Game), S Brian Branch (Left Game), S Kerby Joseph (Working back from I.R.)
Green Bay - WR Christian Watson (Left Game), C Sean Rhyan (Injured Inactive), OG Travis Glover (Injured Inactive), LB Zaire Franklin (Injured Inactive)
Houston (Returning from Bye) - RB David Montgomery, S Jalen Pitre, S Reed Blankenship
Indianapolis - LB Bryce Boettcher (Injured Inactive), CB Justin Walley (Injured Inactive)
Jacksonville - OG Ezra Cleveland (Left Game), EDGE Travon Walker (Left Game), DT DaVon Hamilton (Left Game), S Antonio Johnson (Injured Inactive), S Eric Murray (Left Game)
Kansas City - DT Peter Woods (Left Game), CB Mansoor Delane (Injured Inactive)
Las Vegas - CB Darien Porter (Left Game)
L.A Chargers - WR Brenen Thompson (Injured Inactive), OG Kayode Awosika (Injured Inactive), LB Daiyan Henley (Left Game), CB Donte Jackson (Injured Inactive)
L.A Rams - TE Colby Parkinson (Injured Inactive), CB Trent McDuffie (Left Game), CB Jaylen Watson (Left Game)
Miami - OG Kadyn Proctor (Injured Inactive)
Minnesota - S Theo Jackson (Left Game)
New England - RB TreVeyon Henderson (Injured Inactive), WR A.J. Brown (Injured Inactive), TE Hunter Henry (Left Game), EDGE Gabe Jacas (Left Game)
New Orleans (Returning from Bye) - OG Cesar Ruiz, DT Nathan Shepherd, S Justin Reid, WR Jordyn Tyson (Working back from I.R.)
New York Giants (Returning from Bye) - RB Cam Skattebo, TE Theo Johnson, CB Greg Newsome II, S Jevon Holland
New York Jets - RB Breece Hall (Injured Inactive), EDGE David Bailey (Injured Inactive), EDGE Joseph Ossai (Injured Inactive)
Philadelphia - WR DeVonta Smith (Injured Inactive), WR Dontayvion Wicks (Injured Inactive), WR Britain Covey (Injured Inactive), LB Jihaad Campbell (Injured Inactive), S Michael Carter II (Left Game)
Pittsburgh (Bye Week) - WR Ben Skowronek (Injured Inactive), CB Brandin Echols (Injured Inactive)
San Francisco (Returning from Bye) - RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Mike Evans, WR Deebo Samuel, EDGE Nick Bosa
Seattle - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Tampa Bay - WR Emeka Egbuka (Injured Inactive), EDGE YaYa Diaby (Left Game)
Tennessee (Bye Week) - RB Tyjae Spears (Injured Inactive), WR Carnell Tate (Injured Inactive), OG Peter Skoronski (Left Game), OT JC Latham (Left Game), CB Marcus Harris (Left Game)
Washington - RB Jeremy McNichols (Left Game), DT Javon Kinlaw (Injured Inactive), DT Johnny Newton (Working back from I.R.)


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CFB Risers & Fallers
By: Brad Powers, Co-Host of Hit The Books 

You can Follow Brad Powers on Twitter/X

Biggest Upgrades from Last Week:

Baylor +2.5 points
The one-game interim coach bump is alive and well. After firing head coach Dave Aranda, Baylor opened a 1.5-point underdog at UCF last week. They closed 2.5-point favorites. Baylor would play their best game of the season as they crushed UCF 41-9 out-gaining them by 222 yards. Interim coach Joe Klanderman said he hopes to provide a jolt of energy for the Bears after the coaching change. It seems he did. 

Charlotte +2.0 points
For the second consecutive game, Charlotte took a lot of money in the market. They opened 13.5-point underdogs at Fan Duel last Sunday and closed 7.5-point underdogs. No matter what number you bet Charlotte at, you cashed as they lost by 7 in overtime to Tulane. Charlotte should have won the game outright as they led by 10 in the middle of the fourth quarter.

South Carolina +2.0 points
A case could be made that no one is playing better right now than South Carolina. The market has started to notice. South Carolina opened 5.5-point underdogs at Oklahoma last week. They closed 3.5-point underdogs. Their backers were easily rewarded as they crushed the Sooners 42-25. It was worse than the final as Oklahoma scored the game’s final nine points. South Carolina was also minus-3 in turnovers and still easily covered.

Biggest Downgrades from Last Week:

Oklahoma -2.5 points
The Sooners season is officially on the brink. Last week they got crushed by South Carolina at home 42-25. The Sooners were plus-three in turnovers and still managed to come up 20.5-points short of the spread. Oklahoma entered the season with playoff aspirations. Now they’ll be fortunate to make a bowl game. I project Oklahoma to be underdogs in three of their last four games.

UCF -2.5 points
Fresh off one of the biggest wins in school history (upset of No. 2 BYU), UCF laid an egg at home vs Baylor. The Knights lost 41-9 and were out-gained by 222 yards as 2.5-point underdogs. The market moved against them four points last week. I faded them again this week taking their opponent Kansas -1.5 on the Sunday openers at Fan Duel.

Georgia State -2.5 points
Georgia State starting quarterback Cameran Brown did not play last week. Georgia State opened 6.5-point favorites and closed 3.5-point favorites vs Coastal Carolina. Georgia State would lose 31-20. It was worse than the final as Georgia State trailed 31-6 entering the fourth quarter and they benefitted from a plus-two turnover margin. Keep an eye on the injury report this week. If Brown doesn’t play, I don’t like their chances at Appalachian State.


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