The Hammer Drop Sunday Week 2 NFL - Biggest Line Movement, NFL Bets, Player Props

Biggest Line Movement for Week 2 Sunday Games


-Chicago -5.5 to -4.5
-Min/Chi Total 48.5 to 47
-Atlanta -1 to Carolina -2.5 -115/-120
-Green Bay -4 to -3 -115
-GB/NYJ Total 45 to 43.5/44
-NO/Bal Total 47.5 to 45.5
-Tampa Bay -9 to -7.5
-Jax/Den Total 44.5 to 45.5
-Sea/Ari Total 40 to 41
-Ind/KC Total 47.5 to 46.5


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NFL Best Bets from Forward Progress this week

Rob Pizzola:
-NYJ +3.5 -106
-Ind/KC u47.5 -115
-Jax/Den o45.5 -105
-SF/Mia u45.5 -105

G-Stack:
-NYJ +3.5 -102
-Pit/NE u42.5 -120
-Jax/Den o45.5 -105
-NO +8.5 -115

Austin Mock:
-NYJ +3.5 -106
-Pit/NE u41.5 -110


Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/FwdProgressHQ 


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NFL Player Prop from the Hitman

Jonathan Taylor under 83.5 rushing yards -114 at FanDuel

Worried about this Indy offense in general with Jones maybe not being quite right, plus the likely negative game script in this one. I thought Walker should have been lined a little higher than Taylor.


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Sunday Prop Looks from Clev TA

Omarion Hampton over 62.5 rush yards -113 at FanDuel; good to 65.5
Omarion Hampton 100+ rush yards +410 at FanDuel

This is a major adjustment in one week even though the Chargers are still significant favorites. He closed in the low 70s last week as a big favorite and one week later in a similar spot he is 10 yards cheaper. Los Angeles only ran 52 plays and were in a negative game script but he still saw 12 attempts and 43 yards. He received 12/16 total LA RB carries (75%). The Chargers ran it 41% in a neutral game state and if they only runs a league average number of plays (64) and a reasonable 4.0 ypc, a baseline of 19.7 for 78.7 is where we would get to. The Raiders are extremely soft up the middle with poor run defenders at DT and LB. I expect a bounce back from the LA offense in general and Hampton should benefit.


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All Bets in today's newsletter were based on FanDuel odds. Play at https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/forwardprogress