The Hammer Monday Week 10/11 - Takeaways, Injuries and Early Leans

Suuma's Takeaways from Week 10
By: Suuma, NFL Originator

1. Caleb Williams — Improving?

Several truths about the Bears-Giants game don’t show up in the final score. The Giants led 20-10 with 10:19 left in the fourth quarter and were in control until Jaxson Dart left with a concussion. With Russell Wilson under center, the Giants’ next three drives produced seven total yards, opening the door for a Chicago comeback.

During that stretch, Caleb Williams finally looked like the player Bears fans have been waiting for. It was arguably the best game of his career: multiple drops by his receivers, three turnovers on downs, and yet consistent poise in key moments. For a passing game that’s been explosive but still below average in success rate, this was an encouraging step forward.

Still, context matters. Against top-half defenses — Minnesota, Detroit, and Baltimore — the Bears have scored just 17, 21, and 16 offensive points. Their next test is in Minneapolis, in a loud dome, against Brian Flores, who’s going to send pressure from every angle. As G-Stack George would say: Caleb, show me a little something here.

2. The Patriots Are Cruising Toward an AFC East Title — and Maye-be the 1 Seed

At 8-2, New England sits third in the AFC playoff race and already holds a 2.5-game division lead over Buffalo. Their remaining schedule is a gift: Jets, Bengals, Giants up next, all likely as heavy favorites. Win those, and the Patriots could be 11-2 heading into their home matchup with the Bills — a game that could effectively seal the AFC East.

This team has a high floor: an elite quarterback, a stout run defense, and a true No. 1 corner who makes life easier for the entire secondary. Even with Drake Maye having two underwhelming outings, the Patriots handled the Falcons and Buccaneers comfortably (24-10 and 28-16 at one point). Add a heavier dose of Tre’Veyon Henderson to the run game, and they may become even more balanced.

If they take care of business in the next three and split their final four against BAL, BUF, NYJ, and MIA, a 13-4 finish is realistic. That likely means a battle with the 8-2 Colts for the AFC’s top seed — unless the Chiefs rip off an eight-game streak. But Kansas City and Indy play each other, and the Colts’ schedule (KC, SEA, 2× HOU) is brutal.

I don’t trust Denver — Bo Nix is playing like one of the league’s worst starting quarterbacks — and the Patriots have a legitimate path to the No. 1 seed in the conference.

3. The Jets Are Not a Real Offense

It flew under the radar, but the Jets’ win over the Dillon Gabriel-led Browns was smoke and mirrors. Justin Fields completed six passes for 42 net yards. One of those was a 42-yard tunnel screen to Breece Hall, who did all the work on the touchdown.

Cleveland actually out-played them: 23-12 in first downs and seven more offensive points. The Browns moved the ball better than expected against a Jets defense missing both Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams after the trades.

So how did the Jets win? Back-to-back special-teams touchdowns — one on a kickoff, one on a punt — flipped the game script completely. That kind of sequencing is not sustainable, and it masked a passing attack that’s among the league’s least functional. The Jets might have a two-week sample record of a competitive team, but there’s nothing real about this offense. (And likely the defense).

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Rob and Clive's Early Leans for Week 11

Rob:
Chicago/Minnesota Over 45.5 (-115)
Seattle/LA Rams Under 48.5

Clive:
Nothing

Both:
Tampa Bay/Buffalo Under 50.5

To watch their game by game analysis of Week 11 Click Here:

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Injuries We are Watching for Week 11
*Note for teams returning from bye, the list is made up of the injuries they had going into the bye week.

Arizona - DT Walter Nolen (Left Game), DT Darius Robinson (Left Game), LB Mack WIlson Sr. (Injured Inactive), CB Max Melton (Injured Inactive), CB Will Johnson (Injured Inactive), S Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (Left Game), OT Jonah Williams (Left Game), RB Bam Knight (Left Game), WR Zay Jones (Achilles/Season could be over) EDGE B.J. Ojulari (Working back from I.R.)
Atlanta - OG Matthew Bergeron (Injured Inactive), EDGE Leonard Floyd (Injured Inactive), CB Mike Hughes (Injured Inactive), CB Dee Alford (Left Game)
Baltimore - CB Marlon Humphrey (Banged Up), WR Rashod Bateman (Walking Boot Post-Game)
Buffalo - EDGE A.J. Epenesa (Injured Inactive), LB Shaq Thompson (Injured Inactive), CB Taron Johnson (Injured Inactive), CB Christian Benford (Injured Inactive), WR Josh Palmer (Injured Inactive), TE Dalton Kincaid (Left Game)
Carolina - OG Chandler Zavala (Injured Inactive), LB Trevin Wallace (Left Game)
Chicago - LB T.J. Edwards (Injured Inactive), EDGE Dominique Robinson (Injured Inactive)
Cincinnati (Return from Bye) - EDGE Trey Hendrickson, RB Samaje Perine
Cleveland - EDGE Alex Wright (Left Game), OT Cornelius Lucas (Injured Inactive), WR Isaiah Bond (Injured Inactive)
Dallas (Return from Bye) - QB Dak Prescott, S Donovan Wilson, LB Logan Wilson, LB DeMarvion Overshown (Working back from I.R.)
Denver - CB Patrick Surtain II (Injured Inactive), EDGE Jonah Elliss (Left Game), RB J.K. Dobbins (Banged up/Hip-Drop Tackle) WR Marvin Mims (Injured Inactive)
Detroit - S Kerby Joseph (Injured Inactive), CB Terrion Arnold (Left Game), C Graham Glasgow (Left Game)
Green Bay - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Houston - QB C.J. Stroud (Injured Inactive), OT Tytus Howard (Injured Inactive), OG Ed Ingram (Injured Inactive), S Jalen Pitre (Injured Inactive), S M.J. Stewart (Season Over), K Ka'imi Fairbairn (Injured Inactive), FB Jakob Johnson (Working Back from I.R.)
Indianapolis (Bye Week) - EDGE Samson Ebukam (Injured Inactive), EDGE Tyquan Lewis (Injured Inactive)
Jacksonville - OG Ezra Cleveland (Injured Inactive), WR Brian Thomas Jr. (Injured Inactive), TE Hunter Long (Injured Inactive), CB Jourdan Lewis (Injured Inactive)
Kansas City (Return from Bye) - OT Josh Simmons (Personal), OT Jawaan Taylor, RB Isiah Pacheco
Las Vegas - QB Geno Smith (Left Game), OG Jackson Powers-Johnson (Left Game/Out a while), OG Dylan Parham (Left Game)
L.A Chargers - QB Justin Herbert (Banged Up/Stayed in game), OT Bobby Hart (Injured Inactive), TE Oronde Gadsen II (Left Game), CB Tarheeb Still (Injured Inactive)
L.A Rams - WR Davante Adams (Left Game)
Miami - EDGE Chop Robinson (Injured Inactive), CB Rasul Douglas (Injured Inactive), S Ashtyn Davis (Injured Inactive), TE Julian Hill (Injured Inactive)
Minnesota - EDGE Jonathan Greenard (Left Game), S Theo Jackson (Injured Inactive), TE Josh Oliver (Injured Inactive)
New England - RB Rhamondre Stevenson (Injured Inactive), RB Terrell Jennings (Left Game), WR Kayshon Boutte (Injured Inactive), LB Christian Elliss (Injured Inactive), DT Christian Barmore (Left Game)
New Orleans (Bye Week) - OT Taliese Fuaga (Injured Inactive)
New York Giants - QB Jaxson Dart (Left Game), C John Michael Schmitz (Injured Inactive), CB Paulson Adebo (Injured Inactive), DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches (Left Game), K Graham Cano (Injured Inactive)
New York Jets - WR Garrett Wilson (Left Game), LB Kiko Mauigoa (Injured Inactive), CB Azareye'h Thomas (Left Game)
Philadelphia - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Pittsburgh - LB Cole Holcomb (Injured Inactive), S Jabrill Peppers (Injured Inactive), CB Darius Slay (Left Game), OG Isaac Seumalo (Injured Inactive), WR Scotty Miller (Injured Inactive)
San Francisco - QB Brock Purdy (Injured Inactive), WR Ricky Pearsall (Injured Inactive), DT Alfred Collins (Injured Inactive)
Seattle - LB Ernest Jones IV (Injured Inactive), CB Josh Jobe (Injured Inactive), S Nick Emmanwori (Banged Up), C Jalen Sundell (Left Game), WR Tory Horton (Injured Inactive)
Tampa Bay - WR Chris Godwin Jr. (Injured Inactive), RB Bucky Irving (Injured Inactive), EDGE Haason Reddick (Injured Inactive), EDGE Markees Watts (Injured Inactive), OG Luke Haggard (Injured Inactive), OG Ben Bredeson (Left Game)
Tennessee (Return from Bye) - WR Calvin Ridley, DT Jeffery Simmons, EDGE Arden Key, S Xavier Woods
Washington - QB Jayden Daniels (3 Weeks Minimum), WR Terry McLaurin, (Injured Inactive), CB Trey Amos (Left Game), CB Jonathan Jones (Left Game), RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. (Left Game)

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Expected Goals, Actual Opinions: Thoughts from around the NHL
By: Alex Moretto, Director of Content at the Hammer Betting Network

Before we dive into this week’s article, I wanted to thank everyone for the response the first two received. As much as I’ve enjoyed writing these, it means nothing if no one reads or gets value from them. I’ve been blown away all the DMs, emails, discord messages, and new newsletter subs that have come from this. I’m always down to talk hockey, and while this is a good outlet to do that, the conversation it’s ignited is even better. If there’s anything you want to see included in here just let me know and I’ll get to it - I’ve already got a few requests to get to in the coming weeks. If you disagree with something I’ve said, have any feedback, or just want to chat puck, you know where to find me.

Lastly, I don’t want to bury this at the bottom where it might not be read: all stats in this article are updated as of Sunday morning. I’m taking my kid and I to the dentist Monday morning so I had to write this a day early and didn’t want to be rushing it post-SNF.

1.) Last week’s article was supposed to include some words on Cale Makar’s slam dunk Norris candidacy. I was going to lay out the case, then ask what the pathway was to him not winning the award, outside of injury. And if injury was the only strong case against him winning, then the -110s to -140s scattered across the market were nowhere near short enough. I needed to keep the article under a certain length, though, so I kicked the can down the road, and a week later he’s -310 to win the award – a more appropriate number, yes, but also not one we can do anything with. This one’s on me.

It feels insane to say a month into the season that any player, in any award market, is worthy of this price tag. There are a lot of great defensemen in this league, but Makar is in a tier of his own. He’s tied for 10th in the NHL in points, has seven more points than the next closest defenseman, leads all defensemen in goals, assists, and even strength points, and is second in the NHL at +14. The Avalanche have scored 24 even strength goals with him on the ice, tied for the most in the NHL. He’s lapping the field and, barring a significant injury, will win the Norris running away. But what about MVP? He’s 22-1 to win the Hart Trophy, which is a bit short considering how forward-dominated this award has been since the introduction of the Norris, but he’s certainly in the conversation. He’s having a Bobby Orr-like impact on the NHL right now, and Orr won three straight Hart Trophys from 1970-1972.

Today’s trivia question: only two defensemen have won the Hart Trophy since the inception of the Norris. I mentioned Bobby Orr above; who’s the other?

2.) Speaking of the Hart Trophy, a couple weeks ago I told you to bet Macklin Celebrini at 100-1. He’s 22-1 now, which I wouldn’t bet, but I’d argue no player has been more important to the success of their team early on than he has. What’s their record without him? This week, I’ve got my eye on another guy currently priced 100-1 on FanDuel.

He’s a center, and the captain of his team. He leads the NHL in points (57 in 41) and plus-minus (+27) since last season’s Four Nations break. He’s on pace for 109 points this season despite an unlucky start to the year, shooting just 12% after finishing with marks of 17.4% and 17.8% in the last two campaigns. His team has outscored the opposition 28-6 with him on the ice this season. That on-ice goal differential of 22 is tied for the best mark in the league among forwards, along with Nathan MacKinnon. Since the Four Nations break, he leads the entire NHL with an on-ice goal differential of +49. Thanks to new additions, his team’s power play is the best it’s been in decades. He’s on pace for 49 power-play points, which would smash his previous career high of 31. He is one of the best forwards in the league in his own end, and he kills penalties. The majority of voters did not have his team making the playoffs. They’re currently tied for first in the East. If he puts up 110 points and guides his team to a top-two finish in a wide-open Atlantic Division, he will be at the forefront of the conversation come voting season.  

His name is Nick Suzuki.

3.) So the Rangers were shut out again at MSG. That’s five times in seven games on home ice that they’ve failed to score a goal this season. They haven’t won as MSG yet, either. I hate that I’m talking about the Rangers in here for a second consecutive week, but they are literally making history with their futility on home ice, so how can I not? The reason I want to talk about it is I don’t think anything has changed from last week. The home-ice drought has continued, sure, but their offensive numbers are still fine, and there’s plenty of evidence to suggest goals are coming. Obviously not all statistics are black and white. Some teams will just naturally have worse shooting percentages than others because they have less scoring talent. This isn’t that, though. The Rangers have finishers. This is just a bad run of variance with all their top guys due some serious positive regression.

It’s even worse on the power play, where Panarin, Miller, and Lafreniere are all goalless. They’ve combined for 38 shots on 89 shot attempts, without a single goal. They have just five power-play goals as a team on the season and rank dead-last with a 12.2% success rate. They need to get the unit going if they’re going to make it back to the playoffs. From 2021-2024 they had the league’s second-best Net PP% - it was a catalyst for their overall success, including a Presidents’ Trophy win in 2024. They have the pieces to get back to that level, and while early returns have been abysmal, their power play ranks fourth in the NHL this season in xGF/60. Goals are coming. That being said, you can imagine just how much they’re missing Chris Kreider right now. During that run from 2021-2024 he had 52 power-play goals, and he leads the Ducks this season with five already – as many as the entire Rangers team has through the first month of the season.

The market is starting to sour on the Rangers, but I’m holding firm.

4.) Going head-to-head with the NFL is not the way for the NHL to grow its audience. The league needs to rethink a lot with regards to its scheduling. Many, including myself, have voiced frustration with the lack of staggered start times on weeknights, but my latest gripe is with the sheer amount of Sunday games the league has scheduled during the NFL season. From October 26 through to end of December (excluding Thanksgiving and Christmas weeks due to scheduling constraints) the league has 44 Sunday games. In that same time frame, there are 31 on Mondays, 28 on Wednesdays, and 27 on Fridays. What are we doing here? The next Sunday without NFL games is the week between the Conference Championships and the Super Bowl. The NHL has just three games that day. Make it make sense.

5.) I can’t get over Mark Spector going scorched earth on the Oilers following their 9-1 loss to the Avalanche on Saturday: 

I’m not sure how he shows his face at morning skate on Monday. He without a doubt is a hated man in that dressing room. He’s going to have to rely on his colleagues quite a bit from here because he’s not getting a good quote the rest of this season. As hilarious as it was to read, Spector crossed a line. Trent Frederic was extremely candid in criticizing his own start to the season following the loss, but Spector called bull shit and carved him anyways. He essentially called him a liar, and soft for not fighting, before proceeding to rake Andrew Mangiapane, Jake Walman, Stuart Skinner, and Kris Knoblauch through the coals. Not even the fourth line was safe, with David Tomasek, Matt Savoie, and Ike Howard catching strays.

It’s one thing to be critical of the team. That’s the job, especially following a 9-1 loss. But this went far beyond criticizing their game or effort in Saturday’s loss. He attacked guys’ character. Say what you want about the Oilers, and they have started terribly, but this is a team that’s made back-to-back Stanley Cup Finals. They’ve also started extremely slow the last two seasons, including more than a handful of blowout losses. Did they pack it in at 3-0 down? Yeah, they probably did. But this isn’t a team that has anything to prove in November. You can bet the guys on that team are going to make things very uncomfortable for Spector in the room, and I don’t blame them one bit. He might be Frederic’s first fight of the season.

6.) As promised last week, my ranking of all 32 teams in oddly specific categories.

Top of the food chain: Avalanche, Lightning

Biggest challengers, when healthy: Hurricanes, Knights, Panthers

Still need to be taken seriously despite ugly starts: Oilers, Stars

Good, not great: Capitals, Devils, Jets

Rapidly ascending, Cup window opening: Canadiens, Ducks

Cause for concern, Cup window closing: Kings, Leafs

High floor, low ceiling: Mammoth, Rangers, Senators, Wild

Not good enough: Blue Jackets, Blues, Canucks, Flames, Flyers, Islanders, Sabres, Wings

Bottom will fall out soon: Bruins, Kraken, Penguins

Bad, but not as bad as we thought: Blackhawks, Sharks

Bad, not getting better anytime soon: Predators

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