The Hammer Monday Week 12/13 - Takeaways, Injuries and Early Leans

Suuma's Takeaways from Week 12
By: Suuma, NFL Originator

1. The Seahawks Are Good

Sometimes the clearest signal comes from games a team isn’t even in. Last week, the Rams marched up and down the field on Tampa Bay before imploding with a big lead — a game that accidentally told us just how suffocating Seattle’s defense was against that same Rams offense the week before, when L.A. was completely blanketed for three straight quarters.

Enter Seahawks–Titans. The final score suggests a competitive matchup, but Seattle controlled the game wire to wire. They led 23–3 and 30–10 in the second half. Even at 30–10, seven Titans points came on a special teams touchdown. Cam Ward “showed G-Stack George a little something late,” but those late scores didn’t change the story.

The Seahawks are simply good — and the context around them each week keeps reinforcing it.

2. The Colts Train… Not That Fast Anymore?

The Colts started the season on fire — lighting up EPA, success rate, and DVOA leaderboards. But the passing offense has cooled off significantly. Yes, their last three games were on the road, but we can look at the slowdown with an arbitrary end point starting in week 7:.

Since Week 7 — including dome games vs the Chargers and Titans — the Colts passing offense ranks:
 

• 13th in EPA/dropback

• 14th in success rate

Still competent, but no longer elite.

They remain excellent on the ground, but the Chiefs shut down the run yesterday and forced Daniel Jones to win through the air — and he couldn’t. Over the last three games alone, the Colts rank 27th in EPA/dropback, largely due to the spike in Jones turnovers vs PIT and ATL.

The offense is still good. It’s just a major step backward from the early-season highs.

3. The Bills Don’t Have the Ingredients of a Contender — They’re Fragile

Buffalo is showing real structural issues.

On offense:
 

• Dalton Kincaid is their only reliable weapon.

• At wide receiver, no one can separate consistently.

• When defenses muddy Josh Allen’s pockets, there’s no easy outlet.

We saw the passing game completely collapse against Atlanta and again against Houston without Kincaid.

On defense:
 

• They struggle against the run.

• They’re vulnerable over the middle.

This is not the profile of a contender. It’s the profile of a fragile team with a thin margin for error.

4. Are the Texans About to Become a Problem?

Houston is 6–5, owns the best defense in football, is finally healthy on offense, and is getting C.J. Stroud back. They went 3–0 with Davis Mills, but the drop-off from Stroud to Mills has been clear:
 

• EPA/dropback: Stroud 0.094 vs. Mills –0.034

• Success rate: Stroud 48% vs. Mills 41.4%

Both Nico Collins and Christian Kirk missed time. Rookies Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins gained meaningful reps. The run game is no longer bottoming out. And before Stroud got concussed vs Denver, he played a solid first half. With him healthy, Houston likely beats Denver and sits at 7–4.

They’ve gone 6–2 over their last eight including the Denver loss, along with heartbreaking losses to the Rams (late fumble) and Bucs during the first two weeks.

Remaining schedule:

• IND × 2

• ARI, LV, LAC (all winnable)

• KC at Arrowhead

A 10–7 finish is realistic. And at that point: would anyone actually want to play them in January?

5. QB Quick Hitters

JJ McCarthy:
Feels like the experiment is already over. With Anthony Richardson, you had splash plays to point to. McCarthy has offered none.

Shedeur Sanders:
Can we stop pretending? He was horrific vs Baltimore and had just two completions over 6 air yards against a terrible Raiders defense. The pro-Sanders propaganda machine is out of control.

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Rob and Clive's Early Leans for Week 13

Rob:
Nothing

Clive:
Nothing

Both:
Kansas City/Dallas Under 52.5
New Orleans/Miami Under 42.5

To watch their game by game analysis of Week 13 Click Here:

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Injuries We are Watching for Week 13
*Note for teams returning from bye, the list is made up of the injuries they had going into the bye week.

Arizona - WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (Injured Inactive), RB Emari Demercado (Injured Inactive), EDGE Baron Browning (Injured Inactive), CB Will Johnson (Injured Inactive), S Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (Injured Inactive), DT Walter Nolen (Left Game), OG Will Hernandez (Left Game), RB Trey Benson (Working back from I.R.)  
Atlanta - WR Drake London (Injured Inactive)
Baltimore - WR Rashod Bateman (Injured Inactive), S Kyle Hamilton (Left Game)
Buffalo - TE Dalton Kincaid (Injured Inactive), WR Curtis Samuel (Injured Inactive), LB Terrel Bernard (Left Game), CB Maxwell Hairston (Left Game), OT Spencer Brown (Left Game)
Carolina - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Chicago - LB T.J. Edwards (Injured Inactive), LB Noah Sewell (Injured Inactive), LB Ruben Hyppolite II (Left Game), LB Amen Ogbongbemiga (Left Game), EDGE Dominique Robinson (Left Game), OT Theo Benedet (Injured Inactive), OG Jonah Jackson (Left Game), CB Tyrique Stevenson (Left Game), CB Jaylon Johnson (Working back from I.R.), CB Kyler Gordon (Working back from I.R.) 
Cincinnati - QB Joe Burrow (Working back from I.R.), QB Joe Flacco (Banged Up) EDGE Trey Hendrickson (Injured Inactive), EDGE Cam Sample (Injured Inactive), RB Samaje Perine (Injured Inactive), WR Tee Higgins (Left Game), CB Marco Wilson (Left Game)
Cleveland - QB Dillon Gabriel (Injured Inactive), EDGE Alex Wright (Injured Inactive), EDGE Adin Huntington (Left Game)
Dallas - OT Tyler Guyton (Left Game)
Denver (Return from Bye) - CB Patrick Surtain II, EDGE Jonah Elliss, LB Alex Singleton
Detroit - CB Terrion Arnold (Injured Inactive), S Kerby Joseph (Injured Inactive), EDGE Marcus Davenport (Working Back from I.R.), EDGE Josh Paschal (Working back from I.R.), WR Kalif Raymond (Left Game)
Green Bay - RB Josh Jacobs (Injured Inactive), CB Nate Hobbs (Injured Inactive), CB Keisean Nixon (Left Game), LB Quay Walker (Injured Inactive), WR Matthew Golden (Injured Inactive), WR Jayden Reed (Working back from I.R)
Houston - QB C.J. Stroud (Injured Inactive), S Jalen Pitre (Injured Inactive)
Indianapolis - Nothing of Note
Jacksonville - WR Brian Thomas Jr. (Injured Inactive), OT Anton Harrison (Injured Inactive), TE Hunter Long (Injured Inactive), EDGE Travon Walker (Injured Inactive), CB Jourdan Lewis (Injured Inactive)
Kansas City - WR Rashee Rice (Banged Up), OG Trey Smith (Left Game/Weeks), RB Isiah Pacheco (Injured Inactive), TE Noah Gray (Left Game)
Las Vegas - RB Ashton Jeanty (Left Game), TE Michael Mayer (Left Game)
L.A Chargers (Return from Bye) - OT Bobby Hart, RB Kimani Vidal
L.A Rams - CB Roger McCreary (Left Game), WR Xavier Smith (Injured Inactive)
Miami (Return from Bye) - CB Rasul Douglas, OT Austin Jackson (Working back from I.R.)
Minnesota - EDGE Jonathan Greenard (Injured Inactive), OT Christian Darrisaw (Left Game), OG Donovan Jackson (Left Game)
New England - OT Will Campbell (Left Game/Long-term Injury), OG Jared Wilson (Left Game/Weeks), DT Khyiris Tonga (Left Game)
New Orleans - OT Taliese Fuaga (Injured Inactive), RB Alvin Kamara (Left Game)
New York Giants - QB Jaxson Dart (Injured Inactive), EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux (Injured Inactive), NT Dexter Lawrence (Banged Up), CB Paulson Adebo (Injured Inactive), CB Deonte Banks (Injured Inactive), S Tyler Nubin (Injured Inactive)
New York Jets - Nothing of Note
Philadelphia - OT Lane Johnson (Injured Inactive), S Reed Blankenship (Left Game), S Andrew Mukuba (Left Game), CB Adoree' Jackson (Left Game)
Pittsburgh - QB Aaron Rodgers (Injured Inactive), OT Broderick Jones (Left Game), WR DK Metcalf (Banged Up), EDGE Alex Highsmith (Injured Inactive), CB Joey Porter Jr. (Banged Up)
San Francisco - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Seattle - LB Ernest Jones (Injured Inactive)
Tampa Bay - QB Baker Mayfield (Left Game/MRI Monday), RB Bucky Irving (Injured Inactive), OG Ben Bredeson (Injured Inactive), EDGE Haason Reddick (Injured Inactive), CB Jamel Dean (Injured Inactive), CB Benjamin Morrison (Injured Inactive)
Tennessee - WR Elic Ayomanor (Injured Inactive), S Xavier Woods (Injured Inactive), OT Dan Moore Jr. (Left Game), C Lloyd Cushenberry III (Left Game)
Washington (Return from Bye) - QB Jayden Daniels, WR Terry McLaurin, WR Treylon Burks, WR Jaylin Lane, S Will Harris (Working back from I.R.)

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Expected Goals, Actual Opinions: Thoughts from around the NHL
By: Alex Moretto, Director of Content at the Hammer Betting Network

1.) In light of an injury to reigning Vezina winner Connor Hellebuyck, today’s column is going to be goalie-heavy. My first thought when Helle’s injury became public was this is obviously a blow to the Jets, but not as big a blow as the market thinks. Eric Comrie’s been great in Winnipeg. I’ve done well fading the market overreactions over the last two years when he’s been announced as the starter – either with Jets ML, an under, or sometimes both. Obviously everything is price and market dependent, but we already saw a bad opener for Sunday’s game against the Wild with under 6 offered at plus-money across the board. It closed between -115 and -120, with some plus-money 5.5s popping as well. All under numbers got home.

This is something I’ll be monitoring closely over the next 4-6 weeks with Hellebuyck out. It’s one thing to be good every 10-14 days like Comrie’s been asked in Winnipeg, but it’s another entirely to do it a few times a week. Comrie beat Columbus on Tuesday in the “backup making a spot start” role to improve to 4-1 on the season with 4.29 goals saved above expected. However, in two starts since becoming the guy with Hellebuyck out, he’s 0-2 with a minus-3.25 GSAx. It feels arbitrary to call him a backup on Tuesday and a starter in the very next game on Friday, but it’s not.

Two of the greatest to ever do it were Carey Price and Henrik Lundqvist, and both believed the mental side of goaltending far outweighed anything else. Price believed it was “part physical, but mostly mental,” while Lundqvist said goaltending was “90% mental.” We’ll find out in a hurry whether the weight of the opportunity is getting to Comrie, or whether this weekend was a simple blip. He’s going to be making anywhere from 16-20 starts over the next 4-6 weeks with Hellebuyck out, having never started more than 20 games in an entire season in his nine-year NHL career. There are two ways this can go, and once I feel I have a good grasp on the direction, I plan on betting that opinion fairly aggressively if the market allows for it.

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2.) Starting opposite Comrie on Sunday in Winnipeg was Minnesota Wild rookie Jesper Wallstedt, who made 32 saves as he recorded his third shutout in four games. In his last four starts he’s 4-0 with a .978 SV%, 0.75 GAA, and a 9.02 GSAx. It takes time for top goalie prospects to realize their potential in the NHL. Igor Shesterken didn’t become King Igor until his third year in the league. Ilya Sorokin was pedestrian in his first season. Lukas Dostal took time to become the guy he is now. Andrei Vasilevskiy, Carey Price, Jake Oettinger, and Thatcher Demko are all part of a long list of high-pick, top goaltending prospects who posted a cumulative GSAx in the negatives in their first couple NHL seasons. Wallstedt only had a cup of coffee in the league over the last two years but posted a minus-5.72 GSAx in five games. The Wild exercised great patience with their top prospect (20th overall in 2021), not rushing his development and letting him play himself into an NHL job in the AHL, and are now being rewarded for it. They’ll have to be careful not to give him too much work too soon, but with Filip Gustavsson there that shouldn’t be an issue. Gus just signed a 4x6.8 extension… I wonder if he plays that out in Edmonton?

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3.) Wallstedt isn’t the only former first-round pick breaking out in net this season. Chicago’s Spencer Knight (13th overall in 2019) and San Jose’s Yaroslav Askarov (11th overall in 2020) are quickly emerging as two of the league’s best shot-stoppers. In his first four seasons in the league, Knight saved just 3.67 goals above expected. In 15 games this season he leads the NHL in GSAA and GSAx with marks of 12.99 and 20.75 In 14 games this year, Askarov has saved 13.82 goals above expected after posting a 6.53 GSAx in 16 appearances before this season.

On October 27 in this column I gave out my seven biggest starter-to-backup downgrades in the NHL. Neither Knight to Arvid Soderblom or Askarov to Alex Nedeljkovic were listed. If I were to redo that today, both would be in there, pushing the top-five. We’ve entered “need confirmation as to who’s starting” territory with both Chicago and San Jose. Blackhawks and Sharks unders, considering both teams are struggling to generate, have been some of my favorite bets of late with Knight and Askarov in net.

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4.) Another stark goaltending split that was nowhere near my radar earlier in the season is Dan Vladar to Sam Ersson. We’ve seen more than enough of Ersson now to know he sucks. Whatever skill he flashed for a brief spell as a rookie was clearly just noise. He’s been brutal since, and with Vladar finding his footing in Philadelphia this season, the gap between them has become fairly substantial and the market really hasn’t caught on yet.

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5.) Coming into the season I talked about Dustin Wolf to Devin Cooley being the biggest starter-to-backup discrepancy in the NHL. Less than two months later and I’m at the point where I don’t even care who starts for Calgary anymore. In fact, I bet the Flames on Saturday against Dallas and was almost happy to get the Cooley confirmation. The market didn’t react, either. It’s a small sample, but Cooley has posted a significantly better SV%, GAA, GSAA, GSAx, and W% than Wolf this season. I’ve mentioned this before, but when it comes to goalies I like to adjust quickly from priors and put a lot more stock into recent performances. I’ve already thrown much of Wolf’s work as a rookie out the window and will assume Cooley has made a fundamental change to his game to get himself to this point unless I’m given new evidence to suggest otherwise. It’s crazy how far we’ve come in Calgary.

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6.) I’ve talked about the market not reacting enough, or at all, to player injuries this season. That hasn’t been the case with goalies, where the market is typically quick to react to the obvious downgrades. That’s why it was so surprising to see the Canucks/Panthers under take so much money last Monday with checks notes Jiri Patera in net for Vancouver. The Canucks have really struggled defensively and are a dead over team at this point – something the market has been extremely slow to adjust for. I’ll keep betting them in the meantime.

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7.) Before we get into the injuries, the Tampa Bay Lightning closed as small +105 underdogs on Saturday night in Washington without Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh, and Andrei Vasilevskiy in the lineup. They’d have been a sizeable favorite with them, on the road, against one of the top teams in the East. If they’re closing over 48% fair in this spot, then they’re wildly mispriced in futures markets. I have a healthy position on Lightning East and have been adding to it over the last few days.
 

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8.) It’s been tough keeping up with all the injuries this season. Not everyone has the time to dedicate to it that I do, so I wanted to include a big roundup of all the meaningful (or at least semi-meaningful) injuries from around the league. I’ve broken them down into sections to make it easier to navigate: new injuries from the past week, guys who were previously injured but are set to return over the next week, and guys who were previously injured and will remain out through the upcoming week.

New injuries:

Andre Burakovsky, CHI (“feeling better” but no timeline); Eetu Luostarinen, FLA (week-to-week); Ryan Hartman, MIN (week-to-week); Vinnie Hinostroza, MIN (“out a while”); Alex Romanov, NYI (5-6 months); Jean-Gabriel Pageau, NYI (“a few weeks”); JT Miller, NYR (day-to-day); Will Borgen, NYR (day-to-day); Jonathan Quick, NYR (finished Saturday’s game but Garand called up from AHL, no update provided otherwise); Thomas Chabot, OTT (left Saturday’s game, no update provided); Ville Koivunen, PIT (week-to-week); Matt Murray, SEA (six weeks); Erik Cernak, TB (week-to-week with a new injury after just returning from his previous ailment); Brayden Point, TB (out Monday, questionable for Wednesday per Cooper); Nikita Kucherov, TB (left Saturday’s game and didn’t return, back at skate on Monday though); Nicolas Roy, TOR (back skating Monday); Jake McCabe, TOR (left Saturday’s game and didn’t return, not at team skate Monday morning); Nic Dowd, WSH (day-to-day); Connor Hellebuyck, WPG (4-6 weeks); Neal Pionk, WPG (left Sunday’s game and didn’t return, no timeline provided yet).


Injured previously, potentially back this week*:

Josh Norris, BUF (out since Oct 10, close to returning); Jesperi Kotkaniemi, CAR (day-to-day); Matt Duchene, DAL (out since Oct 14, return is imminent); Ilya Lyubushkin, DAL (day-to-day); Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, EDM (out since Nov 8, targeting a return this week); Jake Walman, EDM (day-to-day, back “within a week”); Aaron Ekblad, FLA (missed Saturday’s game with illness, expected back tonight); Vladimir Tarasenko, MIN (day-to-day now); Brady Tkachuk, OTT (out since Oct 13, targeting return late this week); Tristan Jarry, PIT (out since Nov 3, nearing return); Jared McCann, SEA (out since Oct 18, has been skating but timeline is unclear); Pontus Holmberg, TB (out since Nov 8, day-to-day now); Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies, TOR (both likely back Wednesday); Brandon Carlo, TOR (could be back skating Monday, return later this week); Sean Durzi, UTA (out since Nov 11, return is imminent).

*Zach Benson (BUF) and Elias Lindholm (BOS) returned to their teams on Sunday.


Injured previously, out beyond this week:

Mikael Granlund, ANA (Nov 13, not skating yet); Charlie McAvoy, BOS (Nov 15, facial surgery, out indefinitely); Casey Mittelstadt, BOS (Nov 6, week-to-week); Viktor Arvidsson, BOS (Nov 15, “weeks”); Michael Kesselring, BUF (Nov 15, “weeks”); Jaccob Slavin, CAR (still no clear timeline); Nick Foligno, CHI (Nov 15, out four weeks); Valeri Nichushkin, COL (Nov 11, out indefinitely); Boone Jenner, CBJ (Nov 11, “it’s not short term”); Nils Lundqvist, DAL (Oct 25, week-to-week): Thomas Harley, DAL (Nov 15; week-to-week); Matthew Tkachuk, FLA (resumed skating, returning in December); Aleksander Barkov, FLA (two months into 7-9 month timeline); Dmitry Kulikov, FLA (one month into five month timeline); Drew Doughty, LAK (Nov 15, “weeks”); Marco Rossi, MIN (Nov 11, “at least a couple weeks”); Patrik Laine, MTL (Oct 16, 3-4 months); Kaiden Guhle, MTL (out 8-10 weeks as of Nov 14); Alex Newhook, MTL (Nov 14, four months); Kirby Dach, MTL (Nov 15, 4-6 weeks); Jonathan Kovacevic, NJD (out indefinitely, yet to play this season); Brett Pesce, NJD (Oct 28, out at least a month); Cody Glass, NJD (Nov 12, week-to-week); Jack Hughes, NJD (Nov 14, eight weeks); Rasmus Ristolainen, PHI (yet to play this season, back sometime in December); Rickard Rakell, PIT (Oct 25, 6-8 weeks); Justin Brazeau, PIT (updated timeline of “at least four weeks” as of Nov 5); Michael Misa, SJS (“at least two more weeks” as of last Monday); Jeff Skinner, SJS (Nov 17, two weeks); Kaapo Kakko, SEA (place on IR Nov 15 with no timeline given); Ryan McDonagh, TB (Nov 8, early to mid-December); Victor Hedman, TB (Nov 8, early to mid-December); Chris Tanev, TOR (Nov 1, “long term”); Anthony Stolarz, TOR (Nov 11, no timeline and still not skating); Nils Hoglander, VAN (yet to play this season, a couple weeks away); Derek Forbort, VAN (Oct 11, still out a while); Filip Chytil, VAN (Oct 11, back on ice but no timeline); Thatcher Demko, VAN (Nov 11, week-to-week); Mark Stone, VGK (Oct 18, has been week-to-week for over a month, still no update); Adin Hill, VGK (Oct 20, out “a few months”); William Karlsson, VGK (Nov 8, week-to-week); Pierre-Luc Dubois, WSH (Oct 31, 3-4 months).

If this is of value to people, I will include an updated version in every column going forward.

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