The Hammer Monday Week 3/4 - Takeaways, Injuries and Early Leans

Suuma's Takeaways from Week 3
By: Suuma, NFL Originator

1. “Rocket arm” Penix — all smoke, no fire

The shine is coming off fast. Michael Penix was supposed to be the big-armed savior, the guy who could stretch defenses vertically and open up a playbook with one flick of the wrist. Instead, through three games, he looks like a mirage. On throws of 10+ air yards, he ranks 31st of 32 quarterbacks in EPA/play, success rate, and CPOE, despite having the 4th-lowest average depth of target in that sample. That means he’s not even trying the hardest throws, and he’s still one of the least efficient passers in the league.

Against Carolina, it was borderline impossible to get shut out by that defense, yet Penix managed it. In the red zone, he’s 2-for-7, with both touchdowns coming on marathon drives of 18 and 12 plays — and on one of them, he threw just two passes. That’s not sustainable offense; that’s surviving by inches. The intermediate and deep passing game is basically non-existent, which is damning when your only real selling point coming out of college was “rocket arm.” The jury isn’t fully back, but right now the verdict reads: wildly inaccurate.

2. Signal in the noise: Browns defense is for real

Yes, the Cleveland offense got booed off the field late against Green Bay, and yes, there’s plenty of frustration about the passing game. But if you zoom out, the story of this team is Jim Schwartz’s defense. They’ve already faced Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and Jordan Love — three above-average to elite quarterbacks — and they’ve held opponents to -0.006 EPA/play (16th) and a 40.2% success rate (8th). In other words: they’re suppressing production relative to baseline, which is the best sign of a legitimate unit.

The run game around Quinshon Judkins looks lethal, but the passing game isn’t there yet — which only throws more spotlight on what the defense is doing. And here’s the wild stat: since Schwartz took over, the Browns’ home defense has been the single best unit in football. In that span, they’ve allowed -0.138 EPA/play and a 35.6% success rate at home — 1st out of 64 possible home/road splits league-wide. On the road, they sink to 45th. Some of that is weather, some schedule, but it’s also a pattern: in Cleveland, this defense doesn’t just play well, it dominates.

3. Houston, we have a problem

The Texans offense is a complete black hole right now. Even with Christian Kirk debuting, there isn’t a single redeeming quality. The offensive line can’t hold up. Nico Collins, once a contested-catch weapon, suddenly looks allergic to contact in some moments. And CJ Stroud has been unable to mask any of it. Since the start of 2023, Stroud ranks 32nd out of 40 qualifying QBs in EPA/play (-0.027) and 31st in success rate (42.1%), behind players like Justin Fields, Aidan O’Connell, and Mason Rudolph. That’s not just “below average,” that’s replacement-level territory.

The Nick Haley experiment at OC isn’t inspiring either — the scheme looks generic, static, and nowhere near the next McVay clone. The frustrating part? Houston’s defense and special teams have kept them competitive. Outside of a few missed tackles on Bucky Irving and some fortunate Jaguar drops, they’ve been good enough to win. With even an average offense, this team could be sitting at 3-0. Instead, they’re wasting performances because the QB and scheme aren’t good enough to move the ball.

4. Arizona, still broken on offense

If you thought 2024 would look different for the Cardinals offense, think again. The same problems from last year remain — and in some areas, they’ve actually gotten worse. The run game has regressed. The guard play is bad. They still have no speed at wide receiver. And Marvin Harrison Jr., once seen as a can’t-miss blue-chip prospect, already feels like he’s drifting into “bust watch” territory relative to his draft stock.

The only thing keeping this offense afloat is Kyler Murray creating on his own. Every scoring drive has his fingerprints all over it; when he’s not involved, they stall. That’s a dangerous place for an offense to be. The irony? The defense has been better than expected. Despite being down five cornerbacks, the secondary is scrappy, and the defensive line looks like a genuine improvement year-over-year. But until the offense fixes its structural issues, Arizona will stay in that cycle: Kyler trying his best dragging them to competency while the rest of the unit pulls them backward.

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Rob and Clive's Early Leans for Week 4

Rob:
New England -4.5 (-110) vs. Carolina
Atlanta +3 (-115) vs. Washington

Clive:
Carolina/New England Under 44 (-110)
Washington/Atlanta Under 45.5 (-105)

Both:
NY Jets/Miami Over 43.5 (-115)

To watch their game by game analysis of Week 4 Click Here: 

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Injuries We are Watching for Week 4

Arizona - OT Paris Johnson Jr. (Injured  Inactive), OL Will Hernandez (Injured  Inactive), CB Will Johnson (Injured  Inactive), RB James Conner (Season Over)
Atlanta - CB A.J. Terrell (Injured Inactive)
Baltimore - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Buffalo - DT Ed Oliver (Injured Inactive), LB Matt Milano (Injured Inactive)
Carolina - DT Tershawn Wharton (Injured Inactive), WR Xavier Legette (Injured Inactive),  TE Ja'Tavion Sanders (Left Game)
Chicago - CB Kyler Gordon (Injured Inactive), LB T.J. Edwards (Injured Inactive), CB Jaylon Jones (Injured Inactive), TE Colston Loveland (Left Game)
Cincinnati - EDGE Shemar Stewart (Injured Inactive), CB Cam Taylor-Britt (Injured Inactive),  OG Dalton Risner (Left Game), TE Noah Fant (Left Game)
Cleveland - OT Jack Conklin (Injured Inactive), OT Dawand Jones (Left Game)
Dallas - WR CeeDee Lamb (Could be High Ankle), CB Trevon Diggs (Left Game), CB DaRon Bland (Injured Inactive), DT Kenny Clark (Left Game)
Denver - TE Evan Engram (Injured Inactive)
Detroit - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Green Bay - OT Zach Tom (Left Game), OG Aaron Banks (Left Game)
Houston - CB Derek Stingley Jr. (Left Game)
Indianapolis - CB Kenny Moore II (Left Game), WR Alec Pierce (Left Game)
Jacksonville - WR Dyami Brown (Left Game)
Kansas City - WR Xavier Worthy (Injured Inactive), CB Kristian Fulton (Injured Inactive), S Bryan Cook (Left Game), EDGE Mike Danna (Injured Inactive), EDGE Charles Omenihu (Left Game)
Las Vegas - TE Michael Mayer (Left Game)
L.A Chargers - TE Will Dissly (Injured Inactive), CB Cam Hart (Injured Inactive), OG Mekhi Becton (Left Game), OT Trey Pipkins (Banged up Multiple Times), RB Najee Harris (Season Over)
L.A Rams - OG Steve Avila (Injured Inactive)     
Miami - CB Storm Duck (Injured Inactive), TE Darren Waller (Injured Inactive), S Ifeatu Melifonwu (Injured Inactive), CB Jason Marshall Jr. (Left Game)
Minnesota - QB J.J. McCarthy (Out Weeks), C Ryan Kelly (Injured Inactive), DT Javon Hargave (Left Game)
New England - CB Christian Gonzalez (Injured Inactive)
New Orleans - OT Taliese Fuaga (Injured Inactive), OG Dillon Radunz (Injured Inactive), EDGE Chase Young (Injured Inactive)
New York Giants - DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches (Injured Inactive), LB Darius Muasau (Injured Inactive), RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. (Left Game), K Graham Gano (Left Game)
New York Jets - QB Justin Fields (Injured Inactive), EDGE Jermaine Johnson II (Injured Inactive), S Tony Adams (Injured Inactive), WR Josh Reynolds (Injured Inactive), LB Quincy Williams (Left Game)
Philadelphia - OT Lane Johnson (Left Game), CB Adoree' Jackson (Left Game)
Pittsburgh - EDGE Alex Highsmith (Injured Inactive), S DeShon Elliot (Injured Inactive), CB Joey Porter Jr. (Injured Inactive)
San Francisco - QB Brock Purdy (Injured Inactive), QB Mac Jones (Re-aggravated PCL), EDGE Nick Bosa (Left Game, looks serious), WR Jauan Jennings (Injured Inactive)
Seattle - CB Devon Witherspoon (Injured Inactive), S Nick Emmanwori (Injured Inactive), S Julian Love (Injured Inactive), RB Zach Charbonnet (Injured Inactive)
Tampa Bay - OT Tristan Wirfs (Injured Inactive), WR Chris Godwin (Injured Inactive), WR Mike Evans (Left Game, likely misses time), DT Logan Hall (Left Game)
Tennessee - OT JC Latham (Injured Inactive), OG Kevin Zeitler (Injured Inactive), CB Jarvis Brownlee Jr. (Injured Inactive)
Washington - QB Jayden Daniels (Injured Inactive), WR Terry McLaurin (Left Game), WR Noah Brown (Injured Inactive), CB Marshon Lattimore (Left Game), CB Trey Amos (Left Game), S Will Harris (Out a While)
 

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