The Hammer Monday Week 4/5 - Takeaways, Injuries and Early Leans

Suuma's Takeaways from Week 4
By: Suuma, NFL Originator

1. The Ravens are in real trouble

The consensus preseason No. 1 now sits at 1–3, and the problems are everywhere. The run game — Baltimore’s trademark for years — has slipped into mediocrity. They’re still 5th in EPA/play thanks to a handful of explosives, but on a snap-to-snap basis they’re just 18th in success rate, and when Cleveland and Detroit lined up, the run game completely vanished.

The defense is the bigger story: they’re bottom-8 in both EPA/play and success rate, and the injury list looks like a MASH unit. Patrick Ricard (calf, out Weeks 1–4), Ronnie Stanley (ankle, left Week 4), Kyle Van Noy (hamstring, out Weeks 3–4), Nnamdi Madubike (neck, IR), Travis Jones (knee, out Week 4), Broderick Washington (ankle, out Week 4), Roquan Smith (hamstring, left Week 4), Ar’Darius Washington (Achilles, IR), Nate Wiggins (arm, carted off in Week 4), Marlon Humphrey (calf, left Week 4). Oh, and Jaire Alexander hasn't been active since week one. That’s not just attrition, that’s a defense being gutted at every level.

The Ravens were supposed to be the steadiest team in football. Right now, they look like a team hanging on by a thread.

2. Jaxson Dart and the fool’s gold win

On paper, the Giants’ upset of the Chargers as 5.5-point dogs was a statement. In reality, it was the Chargers beating themselves. They lost left tackle Joe Alt midgame, and from that point forward their line couldn’t block Abdul Carter. Dexter Lawrence batted a pass, intercepted it himself, and dragged it down to the Chargers’ 3. Later, on 3rd-and-6, the Chargers ran a pick play and ended up colliding with each other — Herbert’s pass floated into Dru Phillips’ arms, who also took it down to the 3. The Giants converted both gifts into 10 points.

Strip away those swings, and the Giants’ offense was lifeless: one scripted TD, one field goal, and little else. Jaxson Dart finished with 86 net passing yards. Cam Skattebo averaged 3.2 yards per carry. And now Malik Nabers, the one star who could change games, is gone for the year with an ACL tear. What was left were a few Dart scrambles and 14 Chargers penalties. The scoreboard flattered New York, the film did not.

3. Seattle’s offense is much better than anticipated

Time to take a mea culpa: I was way off on Seattle. I thought their defense could be top-8, which is hard enough to project — but I did not expect this offense. Sam Darnold looked serviceable in Minnesota last year, running a solid system in a favorable environment. This year, he looks like a different quarterback.

Through four weeks, the Seahawks’ passing game ranks 2nd in success rate, 6th in EPA/dropback, and Darnold is pushing the ball: 5th in average depth of target, with only slightly below-average YAC support. Against Arizona, he uncorked a few throws that were pure “bucket” highlights — tight windows, layered touch, the kind of throws that can’t be schemed.

Will they sustain top-5 efficiency? Probably not. But this isn’t a mirage. This is a legitimately good offense, or at least much better than anyone (myself included) gave them credit for.

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Rob and Clive's Early Leans for Week 5

Rob:
Cleveland +4.5 (-110) vs. Minnesota
Seattle -2.5 (-120) vs. Tampa Bay

Clive:
Nothing

Both:
Denver +5.5 (-110) vs. Philadelphia
Las Vegas/Indianapolis Under 48.5 (-110)
Washington/LA Chargers Under 48.5 (-115)

To watch their game by game analysis of Week 5 Click Here: 

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Injuries We are Watching for Week 5

Arizona - OL Will Hernandez (Injured Inactive), CB Will Johnson(Injured Inactive), WR Zay Jones (Injured Inactive), DT Darius Robinson (Left Game)
Atlanta (Bye Week) - CB A.J. Terrell (Injured Inactive), WR Darnell Mooney (Left Game)
Baltimore - QB Lamar Jackson (Left Game), OT Ronnie Stanley (Left Game), LB Roquan Smith (Left Game), CB Marlon Humphrey (Left Game), CB Nate Wiggins (Left Game), EDGE Kyle Van Noy (Injured Inactive), DT Travis Jones (Injured Inactive), FB Patrick Ricard (Injured Inactive)
Buffalo - DT Ed Oliver (Injured Inactive), LB Matt Milano (Injured Inactive), OT Spencer Brown (Injured Inactive)
Carolina - OG Chandler Zavala (Left Game), EDGE D.J. Wonnum (Injured Inactive), WR Xavier Legette (Injured Inactive),  TE Ja'Tavion Sanders (Injured Inactive)
Chicago (Bye Week) - CB Kyler Gordon (Injured Inactive), LB T.J. Edwards (Injured Inactive), DT Grady Jarrett (Injured Inactive), OT Darnell Wright (Injured Inactive), TE Colston Loveland (Injured Inactive)
Cincinnati - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Cleveland - OT Jack Conklin (Injured Inactive), WR Cedric Tillman (Left Game)
Dallas - WR CeeDee Lamb (Injured Inactive), OT Tyler Guyton (Left Game), OG Tyler Booker (Injured Inactive), S Malik Hooker (Left Game)
Denver - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Detroit - CB D.J. Reed (Left Game), CB Terrion Arnold (Left Game), S Kerby Joseph (Left and Came Back in)
Green Bay (Bye Week) - OT Zach Tom (Injured Inactive), OG Aaron Banks (Injured Inactive), OT Anthony Belton (Injured Inactive), DT Devonte Wyatt (Left Game), CB Nate Hobbs (Left Game)
Houston - Nothing of Note
Indianapolis - OG Matt Goncalves (Injured Inactive), CB Kenny Moore II (Injured Inactive), WR Alec Pierce (Injured Inactive)
Jacksonville - EDGE Travon Walker (Left Game), S Eric Murray (Left Game), WR Dyami Brown (Injured Inactive)
Kansas City - CB Kristian Fulton (Injured Inactive), EDGE Mike Danna (Injured Inactive)
Las Vegas - OT Kolton Miller (Left Game), CB Eric Stokes (Left Game), TE Michael Mayer (Injured Inactive)
L.A Chargers - OT Joe Alt (Left Game/High Ankle Suspected), OG Mekhi Becton (Injured Inactive), TE Will Dissly (Injured Inactive)
L.A Rams - Nothing of Note
Miami - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Minnesota - QB J.J. McCarthy (Injured Inactive), EDGE Andrew Van Ginkel (Injured Inactive), OG Donovan Jackson (Injured Inactive), C Ryan Kelly (Left Game), OT Brian O'Neill (Left Game)
New England - OG Jared Wilson (Injured Inactive)
New Orleans - OG Cesar Ruiz (Left Game), OG Dillon Radunz (Injured Inactive), EDGE Chase Young (Injured Inactive)
New York Giants - WR Malik Nabers (Season Likely Over), DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches (Injured Inactive), RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. (Injured Inactive)
New York Jets - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Philadelphia - OT Lane Johnson (Left Game), DT Jalen Carter (Banged Up), CB Adoree' Jackson (Injured Inactive)
Pittsburgh (Bye Week) - EDGE Alex Highsmith (Injured Inactive), CB Joey Porter Jr. (Injured Inactive), RB Jaylen Warren (Injured Inactive), WR Calvin Austin III (Left Game/Weeks), CB Jalen Ramsey (Left Game/Weeks), CB Brandin Echols (Left Game)
San Francisco - WR Ricky Pearsall (Left Game), CB Renardo Green (Injured Inactive)
Seattle - S Nick Emmanwori (Injured Inactive), EDGE Demarcus Lawrence (Left Game)
Tampa Bay - WR Mike Evans (Injured Inactive), CB Jamel Dean (Left Game), EDGE Haason Reddick (Left Game), DT Greg Gaines (Left Game)
Tennessee - OT JC Latham (Injured Inactive)
Washington - QB Jayden Daniels (Injured Inactive), WR Terry McLaurin (Injured Inactive), WR Noah Brown (Injured Inactive), S Percy Butler (Injured Inactive)
 

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