The World of Movers

The World of Movers

Before I get into this week’s newsletter, I’d like to thank everyone who read the first one. The reaction was great, and I got dunked on around 30% as much as I expected.

Now, let’s talk about movers. I know that many of the sharper people reading this article are going to roll their eyes and say, “This is the most obvious thing I’ve ever read.” If you are a top-tier gambler, this specific newsletter probably isn’t for you. That being said, there is a ton of talk on gambling Twitter about touts vs. scaling, but what scaling actually looks like is rarely discussed.

The first time I was introduced to the idea of a mover was in the latter half of the 2022-2023 NBA season. By that time, I had made what I think any reasonable person would consider a lot of money gambling. I also interact with many young winning gamblers who are totally unfamiliar with the idea of movers. Movers are somewhat like Narnia—once you know about them, you get to see how massive of a world they exist in. (Not sure if that comparison actually makes any sense—I don’t know that much about Narnia.)

Quick Caveat

Before I go forward, what I’m writing is based on what I know and have heard; other people’s descriptions and experiences may be different from mine.

What Is a Mover?

Alright, let’s start with the basics: What is a mover? My definition of a mover is someone—or a group of people—whose main function is to find liquidity for originators. The setup is typically pretty simple: the mover and originator have an agreement on a percentage of liquidity each gets on each bet.

For example: The originator sends the mover a bet for Raptors -5. The movers get $2,000 down. If the agreement is a 50/50 split, the mover sends back the originator a $1,000 fill.

Now, I know what you’re thinking: How does the originator know that the movers got $2k down and not $5k? That is a good question, and the answer is—typically—you don’t. In the world of movers, trust and reputation are everything.

How Do Movers Find Good Originators?

For those unfamiliar with movers, this might be surprising: I have never heard of a mover asking for a PnL or a Betstamp account. Once you’ve started scaling, those means of tracking wins and losses essentially become impossible (and a waste of time). You are betting in so many places that using a tracking app becomes nearly impossible, and a PnL statement doesn’t exactly prove anything since the assumption is you’re betting in many different places.

In my experience, it again comes down to reputation and CLV. Typically, once a mover and an originator are introduced, both sides will fire off messages to a few people to see if anyone knows the counterparty. If the responses check out, the arrangement begins. If you have a reputation as a good bettor, or people in the space believe you’re a good bettor, movers will move for you if you ask.

(Quick side note: This is why I HATE when people say, “Winners win in silence, they don’t have time to tweet.” I would have had zero clue how to meet movers without gaining a reputation and meeting people on Twitter, so having a reputation as a good bettor on Twitter helps A LOT.)

Once you start giving movers plays, they see if the lines move in your direction. I’ve heard of mover-originator relationships where the originator went down six figures in a matter of days, but the mover didn’t bat an eye because the closing lines still favored the plays.

How Do You Know They’ll Pay You?

This question, although sensible to normies, has always frustrated me somewhat.

First, movers don’t ask for money upfront, so they are taking the actual risk by betting real money while the originator is building up credit that either has to be paid or collected. An originator can lose money that is owed, but the mover is the one who would be out actual dollars if the originator stiffed them.

Secondly—and far more importantly—in a world of perverse incentives, movers' and originators' incentives are aligned. If the originator is a winning bettor, they are incentivized not to screw over the movers so they can maintain liquidity, and the mover is incentivized not to screw over the originator so they can continue getting their winning plays.

Again, this is a world of reputation—once it gets out that you’ve done something shady, everyone knows.

When Things Go Bad

However, this doesn’t mean these relationships never go bad. I am aware of a mover who is quite well known on gambling Twitter and who, I’ve been told, owes six figures to multiple people.

The way you go bust as a mover is through a combination of naivety and hubris, and this specific person has both traits in spades. My understanding (which I cannot confirm 100% and will not be saying who this is) is that he was moving action that wasn’t closing and was convinced it would win, while also booking action he thought would lose. Both of these mistakes led him to go bust, ultimately owing a huge amount of money that he no longer had.

What Makes a good mover?

In my mind, there are four big considerations when evaluating a mover (excluding whether they will pay you, as that is a prerequisite). Most obviously is how much they can fill, pretty simple: can they get down a lot of money on your bets? The more, the better. Second, how many different types of outs do they have? I would say typically the biggest movers won’t have many bet365 accounts, and smaller movers might have a wider plethora of accounts. Even if a mover can get $50k on an NBA side at 9am, they might be able to get $0 on Evan Mobley for DPOY, so different movers have different strengths in these spots. Third, do they have an understanding of how to keep the market intact? Some movers just don’t really understand how important this is. I’ve had my own personal list sent back to me on multiple occasions—that is a clear signal that your mover is sending your bets too widely. If your bets are getting sent to everyone under the sun, your edge erodes and you start getting a significantly smaller part of the pie. Lastly, how well do they maintain their outs? Sometimes a mover will have a great out, then the next day the account gets restricted and they have nothing else in the pipeline. A good mover should be able to anticipate outs getting limited or lost and maintain some liquidity even if their best out gets shut down.

How Do You Find a Mover?

This one doesn’t exactly have a concrete answer. Movers have a finite amount of outs, liquidity, and betting opportunities, so if an originator finds a good one, it rarely benefits them to share publicly.

That being said, if you talk to people in the betting space and offer them good information, it typically snowballs into a reciprocal info-trading relationship. It’s not as transactional as it sounds—most people I talk to in the betting space, I would consider friends—but I also understand that I can't always blindly ask them for good info without providing anything myself.

So, really, my advice would be to build relationships in the betting space earnestly, not just for profit. Those relationships compound over time and eventually lead you to the right connections.

At its core, the world of movers is built on trust, reputation, and sharp betting. This is what people mean when they say, “Winning is the easy part”—finding a big enough edge, earning trust, and connecting with the right people is where the real challenge begins.